NFL Week 3 Best Bets
The odds makers were dead-on with their lines for the second week in-a-row as the favorites ended-up 8-7-1 against the spread. We were just dead in the water last week, going down with the ship with Baltimore, San Diego, and Philadelphia.
We went back to the drawing board and crunched the numbers even harder to try and squeeze some value out of this week’s lines, so here are Bang the Book’s ‘best bets’ for Week 3 in the NFL.
Arizona (-3 @ BetDSI ) at Seattle
The Cardinals are 1-1 on the year, but more importantly have shown the ability to put points on the board behind quarterback Kevin Kolb and running back Beanie Wells. They have averaged 24.5 points so far after averaging just 18.1 points a game last season. The Seahawks’ offense has gone in the complete opposite direction with a combined 17 points in their first two games. They have a combined 383 yards passing and 95 yards rushing so far this year.
Seattle won both meetings last season SU and ATS, but the Cardinals had won the previous four meetings both SU and ATS dating back to 2008. The favorite in this series is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
The Pick: The Pick: Arizona 24 Seattle 10
New England Patriots (-9 @ BetDSI) at Buffalo Bills
Tom Brady is well on his way to a second-straight MVP award after throwing for 940 yards and seven touchdowns in his first two games. The Patriots are 2-0 both SU and ATS despite the fact that their defense is giving up 22.5 points a game. The Bills have scored even more points than New England after running up 38 points against Oakland after pinning 41 on Kansas City in their opener. This one could be quite the track meet if both offenses continue on this pace.
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against the AFC East and 7-2 ATS in its last nine games against the Bills. The Patriots are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven trips to Buffalo and the road team in this series is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
The Pick: New England 34 Buffalo 24
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2 @ BetDSI)
The Falcons avoided a 0-2 start with a furious 35-31 come-from-behind victory over Philadelphia as 2.5-point home underdogs this past Sunday night. Matt Ryan and Co. finally found some offense with the help of veteran tight end Tony Gonzalez, who had two huge catches for touchdowns in that game. Atlanta’s offense only managed two field goals in its 30-12 opening-day loss to Chicago as a one-point road favorite. The Buccaneers were almost in the same 0-2 boat after a 27-20 loss to Detroit as one-point home favorites on opening day. Last week, they needed to pull off a dramatic 24-20 victory over Minnesota as one-point road underdogs after trailing the Vikings 17-0 at the half.
Atlanta is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games against the NFC South but just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games against Tampa Bay. The favorite in this series is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
The Pick: Tampa Bay 23 Atlanta 20
Dave Schwab
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