NFL MVP Odds Update (through Week 4)
Here at Bang the Book, we are beginning our update for the MVP odds on a regular basis. Here is our first look through four weeks of play at some of the favorites as well as the odds to win the 2011 MVP that can be found below…
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: There’s just no way that we can avoid Rodgers right now as an MVP candidate. The man can just do everything, and it doesn’t seem to matter what gets thrown his way. Right now, he has the top quarterback rating in the game at 124.6, he has the fourth most passing yards at 1,325, and the second most touchdowns with 12. He accounted for six total scores last week, and though beating up the Denver Broncos at home isn’t all that impressive, we know that any time you can be directly responsible for 42 points in an NFL game, you’ve done something truly special. The Packers are one of the two teams right now in the league that are still undefeated, and as long as no one really threatens them as the top team in the league, no one should threaten Rodgers’ rule on top of the MVP voting as well.
Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions: You don’t need a Megatron to know that the Megatron is a legit MVP candidate this year. All of the amazing numbers that WR Randy Moss put up in the 16-0 season for the New England Patriots are truly in jeopardy right now, especially if QB Matt Stafford can stay healthy. You would think that a wide receiver would be splitting votes with his quarterback for MVP honors, but there is no doubt whatsoever, after Johnson accounted for eight TDs in his first four games and became the first player in NFL history to start off a season with four straight multi-TD games, that he is the elite MVP candidate of the bunch. The only other receiver in NFL history to catch two TDs or more in four straight games at any point during the season? Hall of Famer Cris Carter. That’s pretty darn good company to be in.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints: If the Saints don’t ever separate themselves from the rest of the field in the NFC South, Brees is going to be hard pressed to try to win the MVP award. However, it’s hard to ignore his 10 TD passes and 1,410 passing yards on the campaign, especially since he has done all of this without any real semblance of a running game and without WR Marques Colston for half of the games this year. The numbers will continue to be there for Brees every single week, and it almost seems like a foregone conclusion that this will be another 4,000+ yard season, and if that’s the case, there’s no way that we can count him out, especially this early in the season at 8 to 1 odds.
Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: This is a bit of a dark horse candidate right now to win the MVP, but we believe whole heartedly in the Bucs and in Freeman. The numbers aren’t all that pretty for the leader of the Pirate Ship in Tampa Bay, but Freeman has generated two massive fourth quarter comebacks already, and you won’t find a signal caller with colder ice water in his veins with the game on the line than him. Perhaps we’ll drop Freeman off of this list as an MVP candidate eventually, but right now, he’s clearly at least worth a gander at 25 to 1.
Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles: Vick probably should have won the MVP Award last year for the way that he played, and the truth of the matter is that without him, the Eagles are probably 0-4 right now and not 1-3. What more do you want this guy to do? He’s accounted for 1,021 passing yards and 229 rushing yards, and he is surely going to find the end zone with his legs at some point. That being said, if you prorate those numbers over the rest of the year, this is a man with a real shot at being a 4,000 yard passer and a 1,000 yard rusher, something that would almost have to make him the league’s MVP if he can get Philly into the postseason.
Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers: Though we don’t totally buy into the hype of the Chargers as one of the elite teams in the league this year, we know that we have to tip our cap to Rivers. The man hasn’t played well this year, and he hasn’t really been that effective because of all of his turnovers, but he does have his team at 3-1 in spite of the fact that TE Antonio Gates has been injured all year, and WR Vincent Jackson is just now getting back in game shape after taking most of last year off with a contract dispute. Right now, there’s no way that Rivers is an MVP. But down the line, there’s a good chance that he gets to that level.
Tom Brady, New England Patriots: And lastly, we have Mr. Brady. He’s got an offense that is averaging 507.5 yards per game, 384.8 of which have come through the air, he still doesn’t have any legitimate deep threats at receiver, and one of his two tight ends, Aaron Hernandez has been out for two weeks already and could miss more. No big deal! Brady has 1,553 passing yards and 13 scores, and if you prorate that over the rest of the season, he’d have a whopping 6,212 yards and 52 TDs… Of course, WR Wes Welker would have 160 receptions, 2,464 yards, and 20 TDs as well, for what that’s worth.
Odds to Win 2011 MVP (as of 10/6/11)
Aaron Rodgers 2.25 to 1
Adrian Peterson 30 to 1
Arian Foster 75 to 1
Ben Roethlisberger 25 to 1
Brandon Lloyd 50 to 1
Calvin Johnson 8 to 1
Chris Johnson 50 to 1
Drew Brees 8 to 1
Eli Manning 20 to 1
Joe Flacco 25 to 1
Josh Freeman 25 to 1
Larry Fitzgerald 30 to 1
Mark Sanchez 50 to 1
Matt Ryan 30 to 1
Matt Schaub 18 to 1
Maurice Jones-Drew 30 to 1
Michael Turner 18 to 1
Michael Vick 12 to 1
Philip Rivers 4 to 1
Tom Brady 4 to 1
Tony Romo 30 to 1
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