NCAA Football Best Bets – Week 7
Every week the college football schedule is filled with a number of intriguing matchups, but with the lines getting sharper as the regular season progresses, it is getting harder and harder to find the value in the point spreads. The trick is to uncover the games that may have ‘slipped through the cracks’ leaving the books sitting on a ‘bad line’.
Last week we cashed in on Texas Tech covering as an eight-point home underdog in a 45-40 loss to Texas A&M. We have already been hard at work on Week 7’s schedule and are ready to ‘Bang the Book’ once again with our three ‘best bets’.
Baylor Bears vs. Texas A&M (-9.5)
Baylor has risen to No. 20 in the latest AP poll with 49-26 victory over Iowa State as a 15-point home favorite. It is 4-1 straight-up (3-1 against the spread) with the only blemish on the record being a one-point 36-35 loss to Kansas State as a 3.5-point home favorite.
Texas A&M rebounded from a heart-breaking 42-28 loss to Arkansas as a 2.5-point home favorite with Saturday’s win over the Red Raiders. While we did not like the Aggies as a road favorite last week, we love them as a home favorite this week as they matchup very well against Baylor.
The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last four games against Texas A&M overall and 2-5 ATS in their last seven trips to College Station. The favorite in this series is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
The Free Pick: Texas A&M 28 Baylor 17
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-8) vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Georgia Tech is off to a perfect 6-0 SU start (4-1-1 ATS) after knocking-off Maryland 21-16 in less than impressive fashion as a 15.5-point home favorite last Saturday. None the less, the Yellow Jackets are ranked fourth in the country in rushing with an average of 360.5 yards a game and sixth in scoring with an average of 46.5 points a game.
Virginia comes into this game well-rested off a bye week. It hammered out a 21-20 overtime win against Idaho the week before as a 16.5-point home favorite. The win moved the Cavaliers to 3-2 SU on the year, but they fell to 1-4 ATS.
Head-to-head in this series, the favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. The Yellow Jackets are just 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Virginia, but they did cruise to a 34-9 victory as 5.5-point road favorites in their last trip here in 2009.
The Free Pick: Georgia Tech 34 Virginia 23
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (-13)
Purdue responded from a 38-10 loss to Notre Dame two weeks ago as an 11-point home underdog with a 45-17 rout over Minnesota as a 13.5-point home favorite this past Saturday. The Boilermakers are now 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS. Look for a heavy dose of running from Purdue in this game from a rushing attack that is averaging 215 yards a game.
Penn State is off to a solid 5-1 SU start overall including two wins and no losses in the Big Ten, but it is just 1-5 ATS. Joe Paterno’s defense has been one of the stingiest in the nation; allowing an average of only 10.5 points a game.
The Boilermakers are 2-7-1 ATS in the last 10 games in this series overall and 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to State College. They lost their last two trips there by a combined score of 59-34. The Nittany Lions should have little trouble covering a 13-point spread at home, especially behind a shutdown defense.
The Free Pick: Penn State 23 Purdue 6
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