NFL Best Bets -Week 7
The odds makers were a bit off the mark on a couple of their lines in Week 6 as the results favored the home team and the favorites with each going 8-4-1. We cashed in on all three of our ‘best bets’ with Atlanta and Philadelphia winning and covering as favorites and San Francisco winning outright as a road underdog.
In order to keep things rolling for this week, we went back to work to crunch the numbers even harder in an effort to once again ‘Bang the Book’. The following are the three top plays for Week 7 in the NFL.
Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers (-2)
The Redskins suddenly looked pretty ordinary against the Eagles last week after a 3-1 straight-up start. The big news in D.C. this week is that John Beck will get the start at quarterback in place of an ineffective Rex Grossman. This game will actually be more about the Redskin’s defense shutting down Cam Newton and the Panthers.
Speaking of Newton, he has certainly cooled-off after a blazing start to his NFL career with five interceptions and a completion percentage of less than 60 percent in his last three games. Carolina’s defense is starting to show some serious cracks. It is ranked 31st in the NFL against the run and 28th in points allowed.
Washington is 4-0 against the spread in its last four trips to Carolina and the underdog in this series is a perfect 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings.
The Free NFL Pick: Washington 21 Carolina 17
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals
In typical Steelers fashion, this team sits at 4-2 SU (2-4 ATS) on the year with an less than spectacular, but effective offense and a shutdown defense that is ranked first in the league overall and fourth in points allowed.
The Cardinals are off to a disappointing 1-4 start behind quarterback Kevin Kolb. He has completed just 58.7 percent of his throws for 1,281 yards and five touchdowns, while turning the ball over nine times with six interceptions and three lost fumbles.
Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games against a team with a losing record. Arizona is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog and 1-4 ATS in its last five games against a team with a winning record.
The Free NFL Pick: Pittsburgh 24 Arizona 14
Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns (-3)
The Seahawks went into their bye week off a huge 36-25 victory over the New York Giants as 10-point road underdogs, but they lost their first two games on the road this season by a combined score of 57-17. Charlie Whitehurst will once again get the start at quarterback for the injured Tarvaris Jackson.
The Browns’ offense has struggled this season behind an inconsistent Colt McCoy at quarterback, but their defense has been able to keep the team competitive this season. It comes into this game ranked seventh in the NFL in total yards allowed and fourth against the pass.
Seattle is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 games as a road underdog and 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS win. Cleveland is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven home games and 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall. Something has to give in this one so stick with the Browns to grind out a win at home that covers the three points.
The Free NFL Pick: Cleveland 20 Seattle 16
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