NCAA Football Best Bets- Week 11
It is crunch time in college football as teams continue to jockey for position over the final few games of the regular season for a better position in the upcoming bowl season. The odds makers’ lines keep getting sharper, making it much tougher to uncover the value in the point spreads, but as with every week of the season, there are always a couple of the ‘bad lines’ out there just waiting to be pounced on.
Last week, we posted a clean-sweep on our top three plays with Iowa’s upset of Michigan, NC State’s upset of North Carolina, and Arkansas’ romp over South Carolina. We have already been hard at work on this week’s spreads and are poised to once again ‘Bang the Book’ with a few NCAA football free picks for Week 11.
No.2 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-17) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Everything has fallen into place for the Cowboys’ shot at a national title as long as they can close-out the season with wins over Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Oklahoma. The toughest game by far will be the season finale against the Sooners, which sets things up for a possible letdown over the next two weeks.
Texas Tech has long since been out of the running for a Big 12 title after losing four of its last five games, but that one win was a stunning upset of Oklahoma on the road as a 29-point road favorite. The Red Raiders would love nothing better than making it 2-0 against their neighbors to the north.
Oklahoma State is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings overall, but just 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to Lubbock. The home team in this series is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings overall. Texas Tech will not pull-off the upset, but it will throw enough of a scare into the Cowboys to easily cover with the 17 points.
The Free Pick: Oklahoma State 38 Texas Tech 30
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. No. 9 Clemson Tigers (-16.5)
Wake Forest’s early season run to the top of the ACC Atlantic Division has ran into a wall with three losses in its last four games, including a 38-17 setback to Virginia Tech as a seven-point home underdog and a 49-24 defeat at the hands of North Carolina as a seven-point road underdog.
Clemson is looking to bounce back from a devastating 31-17 loss to Georgia Tech two weeks ago as a 3.5-point road favorite. That loss that pretty much ended its chance to play for a national title, but a win over the Demon Deacons would go a long way towards locking up the ACC Atlantic Division crown.
The home team in this series is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and Wake Forest is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five trips to Clemson. The Tigers will try and run this one up in an effort at making a statement for the polls.
The Free Pick: Clemson 42 Wake Forest 20
Michigan State Spartans (-3) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
The Spartans still control their destiny in the Big Ten’s Legends Division at 4-1 straight-up in conference play, but have fallen out of form in recent weeks with a 24-3 loss to Nebraska as 4.5-point road underdogs and a tenuous 31-24 victory over Minnesota as 28-point home favorites.
Iowa pulled-off a huge 24-16 victory over Michigan as a 3.5-point home underdog, to atone for an ugly 22-21 loss to Minnesota as a 14.5-point road favorite the week before. A win on Saturday would actually put the Hawkeyes in the driver seat for the Legends Division title with a season-ending game against Nebraska most likely being the deciding factor.
Michigan State is 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings between the two and 0-5 ATS in its last five trips to Iowa. The home team in this series is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Iowa State may not win this game, but rest assured it will battle to the bitter end at home to cover with the three points.
The Free Pick: Michigan State 24 Iowa 23
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