NFL Week 16 Betting Trends

December 23, 2011

NFL Week 16 Betting Trends

NFL Week 16 Betting Trends

The final two weeks of the NFL regular season will fill in the missing pieces of this year’s playoff picture, but the odds-on-favorites to meet in Super Bowl XLVI are still the Green Bay Packers and the New England Patriots.

The Packers are listed at -125 to win the NFC Championship. Given the fact that with the No.1 seed in the conference the road to Indianapolis has to go through Lambeau Field, it is easy to understand these odds. The Patriots are +140 favorites to win their conference and they took one step closer to locking-up the No.1 seed in the AFC with a convincing 41-23 victory over Denver last Sunday as seven-point road favorites. They are 9.5-point home favorites against Miami this week and finish-up against Buffalo next week, so it is safe to assume they will be home for the playoffs. While the road going through Foxborough is not nearly as formidable as playing in Green Bay, it provides a significant advantage for New England’s chances to get back to the big game.

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In advance of even knowing which teams are actually going into the playoffs, the odds have already been released for the potential matchups for this year’s Super Bowl. Obviously, a Packers-Patriots showdown has the best odds at +300. There is some solid value in that number considering the current position and form of both teams, but do not tell that to the other contenders for the title.

The New Orleans Saints have won six straight games and while they cannot clinch the No.1 seed in the NFC, they are in excellent shape to land a crucial first-round bye with the second seed. The big question for a dome team that relies on a high-octane passing game is can New Orleans win a game on frozen tundra? Its odds to meet the Patriots are +800.

Turning to the AFC, the Baltimore Ravens will still have something to say about which team represents the conference in the league championship. They will most likely land the second seed which is a major improvement from trying to take the wildcard route the past few seasons. The Ravens have also beaten the Patriots on the road in the playoffs and have a defense that can slow Tom Brady down. Their odds to play Green Bay are the next best at +400.

If you believe that neither the Packers nor the Patriots will win their conference, then it opens-up a number of risk-reward opportunities. Given that the Saints are second-favorites at +300 to win the NFC and the Ravens are the second-favorites to win the AFC at +200, the odds that these two team’s butt heads in the Super Bowl is +1000. The value is definitely there for a small wager given the current form of both teams.

The next favorite to win the NFC is San Francisco at +500, but given this team’s lack of experience in the playoffs, it may be a year or two away from seriously competing for a title. The 49ers’odds to play the Patriots are +1200 and to play the Ravens are +1500. The third-favorite to win the AFC at +450 is no stranger to Super Bowls, but the Pittsburgh Steelers would have to get back the AFC Championship via the wildcard route with a quarterback nursing a high ankle sprain. Their odds to meet the Packers are +800 and a matchup with the Saints is +2000.

If you are looking to take a flyer on one of the most unlikely matchups between teams that have already locked-up division titles, then take San Francisco against Houston at +5000.

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Dave Schwab

DJ is a freelance writer that concentrates on his true passion in life; the world of sports. He produces a number of articles each week for BangTheBook.com as well as a select group of other websites that specialize in providing the most up-to-date information for the sports gaming industry. His goal is to write insightful articles on a wide variety of sporting topics that can provide an edge to today's sophisticated online player.

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