Military Bowl: Toledo vs. Air Force Free Pick
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Toledo Rockets vs. Air Force Falcons Gambling Odds from Bookmaker
NCAA FB Betting Favorite: Toledo -3
Over/Under: 70
Both Toledo and Air Force come into this game on a nice hot streak. The Rockets have won eight of their last nine games. The Falcons have won four of their last five contests. Both of these teams have put up a lot of points this year, but the two defenses are suspect at best. Which defense can step up enough to push their team to a victory in the final game of the season?
Toledo got a lot of national television time this year on the midweek ESPN games. The Rockets showed just how exceptional their offense is on multiple occasions. How good has this offense been of late? The Rockets haven’t scored less than 44 points in a single game in their last five contests. Toledo has two very good quarterbacks in Terrance Owens and Austin Dantin. Dantin is listed as questionable for this game to a concussion. Owens is a dual-threat quarterback who makes good decisions with the football. He is completing 71% of his passes and he has 15 touchdown passes this year compared to just three interceptions. The Rockets primary play maker is wideout Eric Page. Page caught 111 passes this year, and he finished with ten receiving touchdowns. Adonis Thomas and Morgan Williams are both great at the tailback spot for Toledo. This is a complete offense that averages 42.2 points per game on the season.
The Rockets defense is a major liability. At the beginning of November, they actually allowed 63 points in two straight contests. This unit has been fairly good against the run this year, but they are terrible against the pass. Opponents are averaging 401 yards and 32 points per game against this defense.
Air Force is always a team that can run the football very well with their great triple option system, and this year is no different. Tim Jefferson Jr. is a great leader for this offense. Jefferson is a four-year starter at the quarterback position, and he definitely knows how this offense is run. Though he definitely prefers to run the football, he has improved his passing numbers each year. Asher Clark is the Falcons top running back. Clark averages an amazing 7.3 yards per carry. His quickness is tough to contain for most defenses. Mike Dewitt is the fullback in this offense, and he got 110 carries and 10 touchdowns this year as well. Air Force averaged 34.4 points per game during the regular season.
The Falcons defense hasn’t struggled as much as the Rockets, but they haven’t been great either. Air Force does have a veteran secondary that has done a great job shutting down the opposing passing attacks this year. The problem has been the lack of size on the front four. Air Force generally gets manhandled on the line. The Falcons are giving up 228 rushing yards per game this season.
Look for both teams to be running the ball early and often in this one. This is a very high number, but I think the value is still with the ‘over’ because of the weaknesses of these defenses.
Free College Football Pick: Over 70
Kyle Hunter
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