December 30, 2011

NFL Pick: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Gambling Odds from JustBet

NFL Betting Favorite: Broncos -3

Over/Under: 37

A couple weeks can make a huge difference in a league like the NFL. Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos were riding high a couple weeks ago, but after a couple bad losses the pressure is on them to win this game. Kyle Orton started the season under center for Denver, but he’s now the starting quarterback for the Chiefs. Ironically, it will be the Broncos old starter against the Broncos new starter in a game that has major playoff implications.

Kyle Orton was let go for nothing in return by the Broncos, so you know he has to have a little bit of a chip on his shoulder. Orton has put 299 and 300 passing yards in his first two games as starter for Kansas City. The Chiefs took a major hit when star tailback Jamaal Charles went down with a season-ending injury in week one. Lately, Kansas City has been going with a tailback by committee approach. Thomas Jones and Jackie Battle have been getting the majority of the carries. Dwayne Bowe and Steve Breaston have both had big years on the outside. Dexter McCluster is a threat every time he touches the ball as well.

The Chiefs defense started out the year terribly, but they have improved quite a bit as the season has moved along. Derrick Johnson has been a beast at the linebacker spot for Kansas City this year. Johnson has already racked up 99 tackles this season. Tamba Hali leads the team with 12 sacks. Hali also has four forced fumbles. Kansas City’s pass defense is aggressive, and they have 19 interceptions on the season. The Chiefs are allowing 22.3 points per contest.

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Tim Tebow was all the rage a couple weeks ago. Most people still see him in a very positive light, but there is no doubt last weekend was the worst game of his NFL career. Tebow threw one touchdown and four interceptions in a blowout loss at Buffalo. The Broncos are at their best when Tebow is running it down the opponent’s throat. Tebow averages 5.6 yards per carry, and he has six touchdown runs. Willis McGahee has revived his career with a big 1,000 yard season in the backfield for Denver this year. Eric Decker is quickly becoming Tebow’s favorite target on the outside. Decker has 43 catches and eight touchdown receptions this season.

Denver’s defense has made major strides over the course of the season. Rookie Von Miller was a tremendous addition to this unit. Miller leads the team with 11.5 sacks and three forced fumbles. Elvis Dumervil is also a great pass rusher, and he has 9.5 sacks on the year. Wesley Woodyard and D.J. Williams are the team’s leading tacklers from their linebacker spots. The secondary is a veteran group, but they might be without safety Brian Dawkins this week. Dawkins has a neck injury and he is listed as doubtful. Denver’s defense must be great this week.

The Chiefs aren’t going to just roll over and let the Broncos get into the playoffs. Expect a tough fight here, but I think the Broncos win a close one. I like the value on the under in a game with so much importance.

Free NFL Pick: Under 37

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Kyle Hunter

is full-timesports writer and sports handicapper. You simply won’t find someone who loves sports more than Kyle. Kyle considers college football and college basketball his two favorite sports. Kyle has earned many accolades for his highly successful handicapping, and he writes full-time for many top sports websites. Keep an eye out for high quality free sports analysis from Kyle!