2012 Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview
The 2011 NFL campaign must be considering one of those “lost seasons” for the Kansas City Chiefs. Thanks in large part to several key injuries KC went from playoff contenders to a shell of a team, at least for a good part of the year. Now the Chiefs, after dumping Coach Haley after just 45 games, move on with Coach Crennel, who got some response from this outfit late last year, as KC knocked off the Green Bay Packers and Broncos over the last three weeks. With a healthy group of skills players he could have the Chiefs right back in the AFC playoff hunt this season.
Last Season in Review
The Chiefs began last year in dismal fashion, losing Pro Bowl S Eric Berry for the season in Week 1 and leading rusher Jamaal Charles in Week 2. They lost their first three games by a combined score of 109-27. Then, almost shockingly, KC won four in a row, and looked like they might be able to carry on. But it was just an illusion, as the Chiefs lost their next four in a row, scoring a total of 25 points in the process, to remove themselves from contention. The highlight of the year, though, was yet to come, as Kansas City ended Green Bay’s hopes of going undefeated with a 19-14 upset in Week 15.
The Chiefs ranked 27th in the league in offense last season at 311 YPG and 15th in rushing at 118 YPG, and got held to 13 points or less 10 times. But we might want to throw those stats out, considering they played almost all year without Charles and the last half of the season without QB Matt Cassel.
On the other side of the ball KC ranked 11th in defense at 333 YPG but 26th vs. the run, allowing 132 YPG on the ground.
So overall the Chiefs ranked 21st in both total yardage at -22 YPG and total rushing at -14 YPG.
Still, KC managed to go 9-7 ATS, and 9-3 ATS as underdogs, as with the injuries they became under-rated. Also, as Chiefs games averaged 34 points, second-fewest in the league, they went 4-12 on the ‘over/unders.’
KC quarterbacks combined to complete less than 60 percent of their passes last year and compiled a 13/18 TD/INT ratio.
The Chiefs parted ways with a lot of people over the off-season, including two starters from the O line, RBs Thomas Jones, Jackie Battle and LeRon McClain, TE Leonard Pope, NT Kelly Gregg and CB Brandon Carr.
In an effort to fill those holes KC brought in RB Peyton Hillis, TE Kevin Boss, OT Eric Winston and CB Stanford Routt. They also think they’ve upgraded the QB depth chart by adding Brady Quinn.
The Chiefs then used the 11th pick in the draft to take Memphis NT Dontari Poe, then bolstered the O line by taking a guard at No. 44 and a tackle at No. 74. All in all, we like what they’ve done.
2012 Chiefs Schedule
According to last year’s W/L records KC will play the 20th-most difficult schedule in the league this season. They do play seven games, though, against teams that made the playoffs last year. The Chiefs open with the Falcons, then after a trip to Buffalo go Saints-Chargers-Ravens. Later they play back-to-back national TV games on the road at San Diego and Pittsburgh, and follow that up with Bengals-Broncos-Panthers. They then get some winnable games with the Browns, Raiders and Colts before ending with the rivalry game at Denver.
2012 Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds and Prediction
KC is getting +350 at Bovada to win the AFC West this season, 20/1 to win the AFC and 45/1 to win the Super Bowl, while JustBet has tagged the Chiefs with a regular-season wins ‘over/under’ of eight (O -125/U -105).
KC managed to go 7-9 last year without Charles and with virtually no help from the quarterback position. And they did seem to respond to Crennel. So in hoping they can avoid the big bites from the injury bug we’re leaning toward the ‘over’ on eight wins for the Chiefs this season.