July 10, 2012

2012 New York Jets Odds and Preview

2012 New York Jets Betting Preview

After back-to-back AFC championship game appearances the New York Jets went into last year hoping to get over the hump and into the Super Bowl. Instead the Jets disappointed, playing erratically on offense and at times seemingly uninspired, and missed the playoffs completely. Suddenly Coach Ryan is on a hot-seat, as NY enters this season with several questions, including maybe one at quarterback.

Last Year in Review

New York might have been the streakiest team in the league last year. They started 2-0, then lost three in a row, then won three in a row, then lost to the Patriots and Broncos, then won three in a row to get to 8-5. But with a third-straight playoff berth within sight, the Jets lost their last three in a row to finish at 8-8 and sitting at home for the postseason.

New York also lost its two games to New England, and went 0-5 against teams that made the playoffs. Not exactly what you’d call the record of a contender.

Statistically Speaking

The Jets ranked 25th in total offense last year at 312 YPG, and 22nd in rushing at 106 YPG, as they drifted away from what got them to back-to-back AFC title games; their running game. In 2009 NY ran the ball a league-leading 607 times; in ’10 they ranked second with 534 rushing attempts; last year the Jets ran the ball 443 times, and let Mark Sanchez throw it 543 times. Little wonder they struggled.

Over on the stronger of New York’s units the defense ranked fifth overall, allowing 312 YPG, and 13th vs. the run at 111 YPG.

Overall, by averaging as many yards on offense as they gave up on defense, the Jets ranked 15th in the league in total yardage at +0 YPG, and they ranked 18th in total rushing at -5 YPG.

Individually Sanchez tossed 26 touchdowns last year, but only completed 57 percent of his passes and threw 18 interceptions. RB Shonn Greene, meanwhile, posted his first 1,000-yards season, and he’ll be expected to put up even bigger numbers this year.

Betting-wise the Jets went 6-10 ATS, and just 2-6 ATS on the road, which was a reversal from their 14-8 ATS road record of the previous two seasons combined, which included those four playoff road victories.

Finally, the Jets went 10-6 on the ‘over/unders’ last year, as their games averaged 46 points per, 13th-most in the league. Some of that had to do with New York’s reputation for running the ball and playing tough defense, so their totals were often among the lowest on the weekly board.

Those ten ‘overs’ were also helped along by seven Jets turnovers returned for scores against them, basically one every other game.

Acquisitions/Subtractions

The big news from the Jets over the off-season was the trade that brought in QB (?) Tim Tebow from Denver. What his presence might mean in the W/L column, though, is anybody’s guess.

New York held on to LB Aaron Maybin, after he finally showed signs of why he was a first-round pick a few years ago. They also signed S LaRon Landry, although he’s a risk, recovering from an Achilles injury. The Jets then used 16th pick in the draft to add 6-6 DE Quinton Coples and the 43rd pick to grab 6-4 WR Stephen Hill.

Finally, New York made a change at OC, bringing in Tony Sparano to re-install a power ground attack.

2012 Jets Schedule

Based on last year’s W/L records New York will play the 20th-toughest schedule in the league this season. The Jets play five games against teams that made the playoffs last year, but just two of those on the road. They’ve got a tough first half, with games against Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Houston and New England all within the first seven weeks, but after that they play just one more game vs. a 2011 playoff team. The “big one” for this season is Thanksgiving night at home against the Patriots.

2012 New York Jets Betting Odds and Prediction

5Dimes is listing the Jets at +685 to win the AFC East this season, with a regular-season wins ‘over/under’ of 8.5, while Bovada is offering 12/1 and 25/1 on New York to win the AFC and the Super Bowl. We love the idea of the Jets going back to shoving the ball down opponents’ throats. That’s not to knock Sanchez; he’s just young, and a young QB’s best friend is an effective running game. And the defense should be fine. So as we expect New York to return to the playoffs, we like the ‘over’ 8.5 wins for this season.

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Cole Ryan

Cole started off as a part time handicapper and a full time computer programmer. After developing a computer program that consistently provided winners in NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports Cole went into full time handicapping. The computer program and his knack for winners made him a rising star in the handicapping world. His complex computer program based on algorithms and analytical calculations have led to a 60% ATS rate.

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