July 18, 2012

2012 Tennessee Titans Odds & Prediction

2012 Tennessee Titans Betting Preview

In their first season under Coach Munchak last year the Tennessee Titans were the only team in the league to finish above .500 and miss the playoffs. Putting the Coach Fisher/Vince Young mess behind them the Titans nearly squeezed into the postseason, losing out on a Wild-Card berth on a tiebreaker to Cincinnati. Now the biggest question for this team is whether they should go forward with the veteran quarterback that got them to nine wins last year or risk it and go with the young QB of the future.

Last Year in Review

Tennessee looked bad in losing the opener at Jacksonville, then won three in a row, beating playoff-bound Baltimore and Denver along the way. The Titans then lost four of their next six, won two in a row to get to 7-5, then lost two in a row, then finished with back-to-back victories but missed the playoffs because of a Week 9 loss to the Bengals.

Veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck, brought in from Seattle as insurance/mentor for rookie Jake Locker, started every game last year and threw for almost 3,600 yards, with a 62 percent completion rate, although his production waned as the season went on. Wide receiver Nate Washington emerged as his top target, catching 74 balls for over 1,000 yards, and RB Chris Johnson ground out 1,000 yards rushing.

Statistically Speaking

Examining Tennessee statistically it’s almost hard to figure how they won nine games. The Titans ranked 17th in the league in offense last year at 335 YPG, 31st in rushing at 90 YPG, 19th in defense at 355 YPG, 24th vs. the run at 128 YPG and 31st in sacks with just 28.

Overall the Tennessee Titans ranked 20th in total yardage at -20 YPG, 28th in total rushing at -38 YPG and 31st in time-of-possession at -4:16 per game, numbers more indicative of a 6-10 team. Around the league as a whole last season teams that lost the T-O-P battle won just 32 percent of games and covered the spread just 34 percent of the time.

The Titans managed to go 7-8-1 ATS, and they went 5-10-1 on the totals, as Tennessee games averaged just 40 points per.

Additions/Subtractions

The Titans parted ways with several veterans over the off-season, including G Jake Scott, DT Jason Jones, LB Barrett Ruud and CB Cortland Finnegan. But they added G Steve Hutchinson and DE Kamerion Wimbley, used the 20th pick in the draft to take Baylor All-American WR Kendall Wright, then went defense with their next three picks.

2012 Titans Schedule

According to last year’s standings Tennessee will play the fifth-easiest schedule in the league this season. The Titans have six games against teams that made the playoffs last year, although just two of those are on the road. But they start off with the Patriots, Chargers, Lions and Texans, so we wonder if it might not be a good idea to go with Hasselbeck early in the season, and let him give way to Locker later on.

2012 Tennessee Titans Betting Odds and Prediction

Tennessee is getting +400 at Bovada to win the AFC South this season, 25/1 to win the AFC and 50/1 to win the Super Bowl, while over at Bookmaker the Titans have been tagged with a regular-season wins ‘over/under’ of 7.5 (O -105/U -125).

We’re torn with the Titans for this season. They won nine games last year but we’re not sure how. Statistically they were terrible, but they should be better this year. The schedule isn’t that tough, but if they go with the inexperienced Locker at QB they could struggle. WR Kenny Britt is coming off another serious leg injury, and Johnson hasn’t been the same since signing that monster contract, but if both can regain some of their previous form Tennessee could be tough offensively. In the end, while we’re not married to the idea, we’re leaning toward taking the ‘under’ on 7.5 wins with the Titans this season.

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Cole Ryan

Cole started off as a part time handicapper and a full time computer programmer. After developing a computer program that consistently provided winners in NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports Cole went into full time handicapping. The computer program and his knack for winners made him a rising star in the handicapping world. His complex computer program based on algorithms and analytical calculations have led to a 60% ATS rate.

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