July 27, 2012

2012 Washington Redskins Odds and Preview

2012 Washington Redskins Betting Preview

After going 6-10 and 5-11 in their first two seasons under Coach Shanahan the Washington Redskins have now finished last in the NFC East four seasons in a row. And Coach Shanahan still hasn’t won anything without that guy Elway playing quarterback. Now for this season Washington will apparently go with a rookie at QB, which would give the ‘Skins four different opening day starters at that spot over the last four seasons. Now, Robert Griffin III may not just be any quarterback, but how much of a difference can he make as a rookie?

Last Season in Review

Washington actually started 3-1 last year, the only loss there coming by two points at Dallas. But then reality set in, while the injury bug took some bites, and the Redskins lost six in a row and 10 of their last 12 to finish at 5-11 and once again in the NFC East cellar.

Along the way the ‘Skins lost to the Panthers, Bills, Dolphins and Vikings, teams that combined to go 21-43 last season, and yet they somehow managed to beat the eventual Super Bowl-champion Giants twice. Go figure.

Statistically Speaking

The Redskins offense, hit hard by injuries last year, ranked 16th in the league at 337 YPG and 25th in rushing at 101 YPG. Defensively Washington ranked 13th overall at 340 YPG and 18th vs. the run at 118 YPG.

So overall the ‘Skins ranked 16th in total yardage at -3 YPG, which is more indicative of a .500 team, but 23rd in total rushing at -17 YPG.

Around the league last year teams that got outrushed covered the spread just 31 percent of the time; the ‘Skins went 7-9 ATS.

Also, as Washington games averaged 41 points, they played 7-8-1 on the totals.

Additions/Subtractions

The big news over the off-season for Washington, of course, came when it traded three first-round draft choices to move up and take Heisman Trophy-winning Griffin at No. 2 overall.

The personnel losses included QB John Beck and three starters on defense, including S LaRon Landry.

In the acquisitions department the Redskins added WRs Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan, who should give an upgrade to the receiving corps, and CB Cedric Griffin and S Tanard Jackson, who should bolster the secondary.

Also at the draft Washington grabbed three offensive linemen and another QB, Michigan State’s Kirk Cousins.

2012 Redskins Schedule

Washington will play the ninth-easiest schedule in the league this season, based on last year’s W/L records. However, they have seven games against teams that made the playoffs last year, plus of course two games each against the Eagles and Dallas Cowboys. The ‘Skins open the season at New Orleans, open at home vs. Cincy, and in Weeks 7-14 go Giants-Steelers-Panthers-Eagles-Dallas-Giants-Ravens. A couple weeks later they finish with Philly and the Cowboys. As far as we can see Washington might be favored in as few as three of its games this season.

2012 Washington Redskins Betting Odds and Prediction

The ‘Skins are getting +700 at BetDSI to win the NFC East this season, 28/1 to win the NFC and 50/1 to win the Super Bowl, while over at Bookmaker they’ve been pegged with a regular-season wins ‘over/under’ of 6.5 (O +115/U -145).

Washington’s whole season is basically dependent upon Griffin and how quickly he can produce. For comparison we looked at last year and Carolina, which went 6-10 with Cam Newton. And he played like Superman. What are the chances Griffin can produce like Newton did as a rookie? Also, playing in the NFC East, divisional wins are going to be hard to come by. We’re thinking the Redskins will be hard-pressed to avoid last place again, so we’ll take the ‘under’ on 6.5 wins for this season.

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