NFL Betting Trends- Super Bowl XLVI Betting Strategy
All season long we have been taking a close look at some of the most relevant betting trends in the NFL, but with just a few days left until kick-off of Super Bowl XLVI between the New York Giants and New England Patriots, it is time to fine-tune your betting strategy for the big game.
Some estimates put the amount of money that is expected to be wagered on this year’s Super Bowl as high as $15 billion, but whether you are throwing a couple of bucks down on your local office block pool or have a suite in Las Vegas already booked for the big game, you need to develop a betting strategy that fits your overall style as well as provides one last opportunity to ‘bang the book’ on the NFL.
BetOnline’s current spread on Sunday’s game has New England favored by 2.5 points, which is down slightly from the opening spread of three points. Its total line for the game is 54 points, which is also down slightly from the opening line of 55.5 points.
The half point on the spread is huge given how closely these two teams are matched. This is the kind of game that could easily be decided by a field goal, just as it was when these two met five years ago in Super Bowl XLII. The half point swings things in the Giants favor no matter which team you think will win the game. If you were already confident that New York was going to win the game straight-up, then you might want to increase your wager to hedge against a three-point loss.
If you were leaning towards New England, the big question you have to ask yourself is will All-Pro tight end Ron Gronkowski be ready to go on Sunday after sustaining a high ankle sprain in the AFC Championship Game. He is currently listed as probable on some injury reports, but is still not practicing with the team. The best guess is that he will be in the starting lineup come Sunday, but it remains to be seen how effective he will be with his cuts and speed downfield. At the very least, he should remain a huge target for Tom Brady inside the Red Zone. The strategy here might be to shop the line to get it back to three, but that only ensures a ‘push’ in a three-point game. Unless your confidence level is extremely high that the Patriots can cover more than three points, you may want to rethink your play.
When it comes to making a wager on the total line, the ‘over’ appears to be a no-brainer especially if it continues to drop below 54 points closer to kick-off. Much has been made this week about the improved play of both New York’s and New England’s defense over the past few games, but resist buying into the hype.
This matchup pits the Giants’ eighth-ranked offense against the Patriots’ 31st-ranked defense and the Patriots’ second-ranked offense against the Giants’ 27th-ranked defense. Current form has to still has to count for something, but you have two of the top quarterbacks in the league leading two of the top passing attacks in the league on the fast-track of a domed stadium. It is hard to see this game not quickly turning into a shootout with both teams going up and down the field at will.
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