NFL Betting Trends – Draft Update April 5
This year’s NFL college draft from Madison Square Garden is schedule to kick-off with the first round selections on Thursday, April 26 followed by the second and third round picks on Friday, April 27. The draft wraps-up on Saturday, April 28 with rounds four through seven.
Many of the draft experts have already released their mock drafts for the first round including Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay and just about everyone is in agreement on which three players will be chosen with the first three selections. Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck will be the first overall pick of the draft by Indianapolis, Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III will go to Washington, who traded-up with St. Louis to move into the No.2 spot, and USC offensive tackle Matt Kalil with go third to Minnesota.
These three picks appear to be set in stone, so much so that Sportsbook.com is offering odds on this as a proposition bet. If you happen to agree with the experts that these three players will go in this exact order, you have to put-up 500 to win 100. If you have a hunch that something might happen between now and April 26 to disrupt this scenario, you can earn 300 on a wager of 100 if you are right. While nothing is final until NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell takes the stage to announce these team’s actual selections, everything continues to point in this direction, so you might want to save your money on speculating that it will not.
Many insiders believe that Luck’s agent and the Colts could already be working on some preliminary contract talks and the Redskins would have not mortgaged a huge chunk of their next few drafts to move-up to take someone other than Griffin. The only wildcard in this situation is the Vikings, but they are in desperate need of upgrading their offensive line and Kalil is built to step in right away and anchor the left side for the next 10 to 12 seasons.
The other prop bet available for this year’s draft is a yes/no wager on whether or not Tampa Bay drafts former Alabama running back Trent Richardson with the fifth overall pick. If your answer is yes, then it will cost you 140 to make 100. If you think that Cleveland is going to grab him with the fourth pick, which is what Kiper’s board says will happen, you can earn a quick 110 on a 100 wager.
Both teams could use a better rushing attack to help offset a sketchy passing game, but most of the boards including McShay’s, have the Browns drafting Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon, who can be a major impact player in his own right.
The other player that has worked his way into the mix as a top-five pick is LSU cornerback Morris Claibourne, who would make any team’s secondary instantly better. Some mock boards have the Buccaneers taking him with the fifth pick, but that is predicated on Richardson going fourth to the Browns.
One of these three studs will fall to sixth and with St. Louis holding that pick. It has to hope that somehow Blackmon is the odd-man-out as he would give Sam Bradford a premier target downfield. It does not appear that Richardson would get passed over by both Cleveland and Tampa Bay, so Claibourne may still be available at six, which would not be the worst thing in the world considering that the Rams’ defense finished the 2011 season ranked 22nd in the NFL in yards allowed and 26th in points allowed.
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