May 22, 2012

Baseball / Moneyline Betting 101

By Tony George / Tony George Sports

Baseball is confusing to the recreational gambler. Well, let me state that another way, MONEYLINE WAGERING is confusing to the occasional gambler. Let me do a short and sweet review of the Do’s and Don’t in moneyline wagering and a crash course in capping MLB.

MONEYLINE BETTING IN BASES – THE GOLDEN RULE – LESS IS MORE!

By any account, you are risking more trhan 11 to 10 odds (ATS betting) when betting in bases if you are in fact playing a favorite, so your 10% juice is magnified big time, plus dime lines if under -150 at most legit books. What this means is simple, if the Yankess are -140 to beat the Red Sox, then you are wagering $140 to win a $100 plus 10 percent vig (dime line) , or basically risking $150 to win a $100.

For this reason I rarely if at all am willing to lay over -150 on any game in MLB in any season. It minimizes risks, and once you consider I have hundreds of clients who follow my plays weekly, and I would say 75% of them are recreational gamblers who have a basic knowledge of moneyline wagering. This puts the responsibility on ME to assure a money management program with a bankroll based on the fact I am not laying -235 and -190 all the time, and those lines many times carry a .20 cent line.

On heavy favs you can lower the odds from lets say -230 to -120 with a run lin, or -1.5, but the team basicxally has to win by 2 runs to cover the bet at the lower odds. This can backfire so choose your spots wisely if using this as a tool to lower odds on heavy favs.

So in essence I find and suggest you do the the same, favorites under -150 to wager on, or Totals Plays which are 11 to 10 odds or -110, or short or big dogs. ALSO limit your plays to 2 or 3 daily MAX. I rarely put out more than 1 play a day, use a flat bet unit method when wagering, and slowly and surgically strike the books with the best bet of day, every day, 1 unit at a time.

SOME KEYS IN CAPPING BASES – Bullet Points

Heavy emphasis on Starters
Equal emphasis on bullpen ERA
Use recent stats - Last 3 to 5 Games
Bet listed pitchers only
Slugging percentage and on base percentage is KEY
If division opponent, check recent history and trends for teams and starting pitchers
Batting averages are different when a team faces right handers vs left handers – check those stats
Never chase a loss with a heavy favorite that you are just sure will win – DOOM!
Tread lightly with run lines – they look good on the surface but can be dangerous
Playoff time – The stats do not lie – trust them

Hopefully with these takes and tips, you can create success in MLB. I have managed to turn a profit in 6 out of the last 7 MLB seasons, never laying over -150 using this approach and capping emphasis. Best of luck.