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MLB Betting Game Trends

Fresh off pitching the first no-hitter in franchise history, Johan Santana (3-2, 2.38 ERA) will take the hill for the Mets. Fresh is the key word considering he will have two extra days of rest since pitching the gem exactly one week ago. He is 5-3 in 13 games against the Yankees during his career with a 4.18 ERA. But he has struggled at the new Yankee Stadium, giving up 13 runs in two losses covering nine innings.

Santana threw a career-high 134 pitches in the no-hitter, walking five and striking out eight St. Louis Cardinals in an 8-0 victory. He has pitched consecutive complete-game shutouts at home and will now have the challenge of pitching on the road, where the Mets have lost in his last two appearances. In fact, they are 1-3 in his four starts away from home as he has gone 0-1 with a 5.03 ERA.

The Yankees will counter with Hiroki Kuroda (4-6, 3.82), who is 3-2 at home with a 3.41 ERA in five starts. Kuroda has pitched at Yankee Stadium just once since May 11, going 1-2 during that stretch with one no-decision. He has been solid in his last two starts on the road though, allowing two runs and 11 hits in 15 innings with two walks and seven strikeouts.

Kuroda continues to be one of the biggest tough-luck pitchers in baseball, going 45-52 in 125 career starts despite owning a solid 3.48 lifetime ERA. However, his 3.82 ERA this season is the highest of his five years in the major leagues, with hitters batting a career-high .269 against him. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is also worse this year than ever before.

There has been a trend with totals following no-hitters since 1999 with the OVER cashing nearly 61 percent of the time (17-10-1). The OVER is also 7-3-1 in Santana’s 11 starts this season. The Yankees have hit .405 against Santana in his two starts at the new ballpark, so look for another high-scoring game here.
Free Baseball Pick: OVER 8.5