NFL 2012 Player Props – Most Passing Yards
NFL Betting Trends- Most Passing Yards 2012 Regular Season
We are still over a month away from the start of training camp and Sportsbook.ag has jumped to front of the list for NFL player prop bets by releasing odds for which quarterback will have the most yards passing this season. The following is a look at a few of the top contenders to accomplish this feat along with their current odds.
Favorites
Drew Brees- New Orleans Saints +350
Brees led the NFL last season in total passing yards in the regular season with 5,476, but there a few strikes against him accomplishing the feat again this season. The most problematic ones are all the off-field distractions that have surrounded his team this offseason. Between the bounty scandal and his whole contract mess, the Saints are already starting the season at a disadvantage that they may or may not be able to overcome, especially with head coach Sean Payton on the shelf for the entire year.
Tom Brady- New England Patriots +350
With a pass-happy offense that features a number of quality receivers, Tom Brady is always a threat to win this title every season, but has only done it once in his career (2007). He finished second last season with 5,235 yards passing, which is the second-most in NFL history behind Brees’ record-setting performance. Brady threw for 3,900 yards in 2010, which was ranked eighth and 4,398 yards in 2009, which was ranked fifth.
Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers +500
Green Bay is another team that has been known to throw the ball much more than running it on the ground and with a quarterback like Rodgers behind center, it is easy to see why. He threw for 4,643 yards last year in his fourth full season as Green Bay’s starter, but that was only the fifth-highest number of yards with Eli Manning and Matthew Stafford joining Brady and Brees to form 2011’s top five. The value in the odds is still there as Rodgers continues to grow into the role as possibly the best all-around quarterback in the NFL today.
Philip Rivers – San Diego Chargers +600
There is no doubt that Rivers can throw the ball up and down the field, but is his team’s best days behind it? His 4,710 yards in 2010 were enough to capture the passing yards title, but he dropped to sixth last season with 4,624. He has yet to throw for more than 4,710 yards in six seasons as San Diego’s starter and you get the feeling it will take well over 5,000 yards to win this title this season. This tends to sap some of the value from River’s odds as he is a prime top-10 candidate but no longer one of the top one or two gun-slingers in the league.
Top Value Pick
Peyton Manning – Denver Broncos +1200
While Manning is still an unproven entity given his prolonged recovery from neck surgery that cancelled his 2011 campaign, his past body of work adds tremendous value to these odds. If he can come back close to 100 percent of his previous form, you could easily see him put up over 5,000 yards passing this season. Denver is not going to be as nearly committed to the running game as it was with Time Tebow as its starter, so Manning should have ample opportunity to put the ball up in the air.
Dave Schwab
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