2012 Indianapolis Colts Odds & Preview

July 23, 2012

2012 Indianapolis Colts Odds & Preview

2012 Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview

It’s all happened so fast. The Indianapolis Colts had been championship contenders for about a dozen years, with Peyton Manning running an offensive clinic that led Indy to nine-straight double-digit victory seasons. Suddenly, though, Indy is now in full-blown rebuilding mode, without Manning, probably starting a rookie at quarterback and with a new head coach. It’s growing-pains time for this franchise.

Last Season in Review

We knew the Colts would not be the same team without Manning, who missed last season with that neck injury, but we didn’t think they’d be that bad. Man, they were positively inept offensively for most of the year, and lost their first 13 games, before showing a little life right at the end in winning two of their last three. But that wasn’t nearly enough for Indy management to keep Coach Caldwell around, although we do think he got kind of a raw deal in getting canned. It wasn’t his fault management didn’t have anybody to replace Manning.

Statistically Speaking

The Colts ranked 30th in the league last year in offense at 287 YPG, 26th in rushing at 100 YPG, 26th in defense at 371 YPG and 29th vs. the run, allowing 144 YPG on the ground. Ugh.

Overall Indy ranked dead last in total yardage at -84 YPG, 29th in total rushing at -44 YPG, and last in time-of-possession at -7:34 per game.

Around the NFL last year teams that got outgained covered the spread 38 percent of the time; teams that got outrushed covered 31 percent of games; and teams that lost the TOP battle covered the spread 34 percent of the time.

That’s how the Colts finished 6-10 ATS.

Indy also went 7-9 on the totals, as Colts games averaged 42 points.

Additions/Subtractions

Of course, the biggest addition to this team is the No. 1 overall draft pick, Stanford QB Andrew Luck. But the Colts are now also operating with a new GM, a new head coach and new coordinators on both sides of the ball. It’s a total revamp.

Most notably, other than Manning, Indy parted ways with RB Joseph Addai, WR Pierre Garcon, TE Dallas Clark, three starting offensive linemen and two starters from the defensive back seven. So there plenty of holes to fill.

After taking Luck at No. 1 Indy got him some people to throw to, drafting two tight ends and a WR at Nos. 34, 64 and 92.

New HC Pagano comes from a defensive background, and most recently served as DC with the Ravens.

2012 Colts Schedule

Indy will play the 14th-toughest schedule in the league this season, according to last year’s W/L records. The Colts have just five games vs. teams that made the playoffs last year, but they’ve also got road games at Chicago and the Jets. Luck will presumably make his NFL debut at the Bears in Week 1, but they then get winnable games at home vs. the Vikings and Jags before going on their bye week. After that, though, they go Packers-Jets, visit New England in November in finish off the year at Detroit, home vs. the nine-win Titans, at Houston and KC and at home vs. the Texans.

2012 Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview

Indy is getting +1500 at Bovada to win the AFC South this season, 60/1 to win the AFC and 100/1 to win the Super Bowl. The Colts have also pegged at Bookmaker with a regular-season wins ‘over/under’ of five (O -125/U -105).

There is still some veteran talent there, with WRs Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie, RB Donald Brown and LBs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, but a ton of youth. Also, when considering they’re likely to go with Luck from the start, three NFL teams played basically all of last year with rookies at quarterback; the Bengals, who made the playoffs with Andy Dalton; the Panthers, who went 6-10 with Cam Newton; and the Jags, who went 5-11 with Blaine Gabbert. Looking at Indy’s schedule we only see at most five winnable games. So we’re leaning toward the ‘under’ on 5.5 wins for the Colts this season.

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