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NFL Pick – Week 3

New England started the regular season in typical fashion with a 34-13 pasting of Tennessee as a 4.5-point road favorite, but in its home opener last Sunday as a 13-point favorite was stunned 20-18 by Arizona after a last second game-winning field goal went wide left. How much to make of this shocking loss remains to be seen, but it certainly left New England fans scratching their heads.

Tom Brady and Co. head back on the road where they are 50-24-3 against the spread over the past several years. The offense will be without tight end Aaron Hernandez, who is expected to be out for the next six weeks with an ankle injury, so look for his counterpart Rob Gronkowski to assume an even bigger role in the passing game.

Baltimore is still trying to figure out how it blew a 17-7 second-half lead over Philadelphia last Sunday in what turned out to be a 24-23 loss as a three-point underdog on the road. The Ravens vaunted defense looked very vulnerable against the pass in that game as the Eagles racked-up 357 yards in the air. This could have Brady licking his chops for a return to form on Sunday night.

Of greater concern could be the play of Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco. After getting anointed as one of the league’s elite in an opening-day rout of Cincinnati, he looked very average against Philadelphia last week. Flacco completed just 52 percent of his throws after putting the ball up 42 times. It will be interesting to see what version decides to show up in this game.

Prediction:

This is easily the first big showdown in the AFC this season as the winner puts itself first in line in the conference while the loser falls into a 1-2 hole that could cost them down the road in terms of a favorable playoff seed. The Patriots have owned Baltimore over the past decade or so with an 8-1 SU record in the last nine games, including last season’s 23-20 victory in the AFC Championship Game as seven-point favorites at home. New England remains the real deal, while the Ravens are exposed for being a tad overrated. New England 24 Baltimore 20