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MNF NFL Pick – Week 4

Chicago bounced-back from a poor performance on the road against Green Bay in Week 2 with a solid 23-6 thrashing of St. Louis last Sunday as a seven-point favorite at home. The net result is a 2-1 start both straight-up and against the spread. The total stayed UNDER in both of these games.

Much was made about quarterback Jay Cutler’s sideline antics in the loss to Green Bay, but Bears’ fans should be much more concerned about his performance on the field with six interceptions against just three touchdowns and a completion percentage of 58.6 through his first three games. Chicago is fortunate that its defense came to play last week to keep the Rams out of the end zone. Overall, it is ranked sixth in the NFL in total yards allowed and fifth in points allowed.

Dallas moved to 2-1 SU (1-2 ATS) on the year in an uninspired 16-10 victory over Tampa Bay last Sunday as a nine-point favorite at home. This followed a 27-7 drubbing by Seattle as a three-point road favorite in Week 2. The total has now stayed UNDER in all three of its games this year.

It is hard to know what to make of this team with an offense that is ranked dead last in scoring with an average of only 15.7 points a game to go along with a defense that is first in yards allowed and seventh in points allowed. The issue on offense does not lie completely with Tony Romo, who has completed 64.8 percent of his throws for 841 yards and four touchdowns, but something is definitely missing on this side of the ball. The most glaring problem is a running game that is averaging a mere 76.7 yards per game.

Prediction:

This game is shaping up as a defensive battle with each team’s offense struggling to find its form. A big plus for Chicago would be the return of running back Matt Forte to the lineup, but this game will still come down to which defense plays the best. The UNDER remains the best play in this matchup in what should be a three-point game either way. Dallas 20 Chicago 17