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NFL Pick – Week 5

Game Overview

There are no concerns about a slow start for San Diego this season with three straight-up victories in its first four games and a 3-1 record against the spread as well. The only setback was an ugly 27-3 loss to Atlanta as three-point favorites at home, but the Chargers won their other three games by a combined 43 points.

Their offense, behind a revitalized Philip Rivers at quarterback, has been very efficient with the ball. He has completed close to 70 percent of his passes for 897 yards and six touchdowns. The real improvement with this team has been on the defensive side of the ball. San Diego is currently ranked 12th in the NFL in total yards allowed and sixth in points allowed; giving-up an average of just 17.8 points a game.

If there were ever any questions about what value a great head coach brings to a team, they have all been answered in New Orleans’ shocking 0-4 start with its coach Sean Payton serving a year-long suspension from the NFL for his role in the team’s bounty scandal. The Saints are 1-3 ATS after failing to cover as favorites in three-straight games.

The problems run deep on this team with an offense that is ranked third in the NFL in passing the ball but ranked 26th in rushing with an average of only 80.8 yards a game. Drew Brees is completing just 57.6 percent of his throws and while he does have 10 touchdown passes so far he has also been picked-off five times and sacked nine times.

The defense has really struggled right across the board in all four games. It is currently ranked 24th against the pass and dead-last in the league against the run. This has resulted in it giving-up an average of 32.5 points a game, which is ranked 29th in the NFL.

Prediction:

It is hard to have much faith in the Saints after such an abominable start, but this team is still too good to be losing games like they have. The total margin of defeat in their last two games was just four points so they are getting close. Take a flyer on New Orleans this Sunday night to snap out of its funk with a big victory at home that easily covers the 3.5 points. New Orleans 34 San Diego 26