SEC Football Week 7 Handicapping Guide
While No.1 Alabama remained idle last week there was a major shake-up in the SEC as a result of a couple of upsets. South Carolina moved up to No.3 in the latest AP poll with its dominating victory over Georgia, which is now No.14. Florida made an even bigger jump to No.4 after beating LSU. The Tigers fell from fourth to No.9. Mississippi State moved-up a couple of spots to No.19 and Texas A&M entered the rankings at No.22 to give the conference seven teams in the Top 25.
Alabama comes of its bye week with an overall record of 5-0 straight-up but it is just 2-3 against the spread. It has been favored by double-digits in all five of its game, so covering does become a challenge no matter how good you are. The total has stayed UNDER in three of the five games.
The welcome mat for Missouri’s first go around in the SEC has yet to be put out with a 0-3 record both SU and ATS in conference play. The Tigers are 3-3 overall (2-3 ATS) and the total has stayed UNDER in their last four games.
This will be the first meeting ever between these two schools, but the Crimson Tide is 6-1 ATS in its last road games, while Missouri is 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games against a team with a winning record on the road.
Florida is riding high after its huge eight-point victory over LSU as a two-point underdog at home. The Gators are now 5-0 SU and a profitable 4-1 ATS. They are 4-0 SU and ATS in four-straight conference games after failing to cover against Bowling Green on opening day. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the five games.
Vanderbilt is 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS after knocking-off Missouri 19-15 last Saturday as a seven-point underdog on the road. The Commodores gave South Carolina all it could handle in a 17-13 loss as 6.5-point road underdogs earlier in the season. The total has stayed UNDER in three of four games with a posted line.
Head-to-head, the Gators have won the last 10 meetings SU and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to Nashville. The total has gone OVER in six of the last seven meetings overall. Last season, Florida squeaked-out a 26-21 victory as a 13.5-point home favorite. The total went OVER the 44.5-point line.
South Carolina put itself in excellent shape to not only claim the SEC-East Division title with last week’s win over Georgia, but to legitimately compete for a spot in the BCS title game. The Gamecocks are now 6-0 SU and a very healthy 5-1 ATS. The total has gone OVER in three of their last five games.
LSU’s loss to Florida dropped it to 5-1 SU and a costly 2-4 ATS. Previously, Tigers failed to cover as 18-point road favorites in a 12-10 win over Auburn in Week 4 and had an unexpected battle on their hands against Division IAA Towson in a 38-22 win in Week 5 as prohibitive 43-point favorites at home.
These two teams have not met since 2008 when the Tigers won 24-17 as 1.5-point favorites on the road. LSU has won the last four meetings SU and is 3-1 ATS dating back to 2002. The total was evenly split in those four games 2-2. The Gamecocks are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win.
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