College Football Betting By the Numbers: Week 7
When you bet on NCAA Football, you should know all about the numbers. Numbers for stats, numbers for trends, numbers for betting lines, numbers for ‘totals’ – You should know it all. Here at Bang the Book, we are set to talk about the NCAA football betting lines for Week 7. Here are the most important numbers that you need to remember for the week!
0: The number of interceptions that QB Geno Smith has thrown this year for the West Virginia Mountaineers. Smith now has 24 scores without making a blunder, and he is completing over 80 percent of his passes in a pass happy offense that has already watched him throw for over 600 yards and eight scores in a game this year. There’s a reason that Smith is the bona fide favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, and he is 1 to 2 at Bovada Sportsbook to take down the Heisman. There just aren’t any contenders right now that are stepping up to challenge him.
1: The number of teams left this year that have yet to cover a game this year. That dubious distinction goes to the Virginia Cavaliers, who are just 0-5-1 ATS to show for their first six games of the campaign. UVA is just 2-4, and a loss this week to the Maryland Terrapins would probably ensure that it isn’t going to a bowl game this year. The Cavvies badly need this one, and the outright win would also give them their first cover of the campaign as well.
1: The number of games that the Colorado Buffaloes have won at home since the end of the 2010 campaign. Yes, the Buffs have been a certified disaster for sure, and their only victory at home came against the Arizona Wildcats last year in November. In there also includes a loss to Sacramento State. Colorado is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games played here at Folsom Field, and the hope is that that is going to change on Thursday night when it meets up with the Arizona State Sun Devils in Boulder.
6: The number of consecutive covers for the Fresno State Bulldogs to start off the season. There are a few teams that still have perfect ATS records this year, but none aside from Fresno State has a spotless record at 6-0 ATS thus far. That’s going to be tested for sure this week when the Bulldogs have to travel to the Smurf Turf to take on the Boise State Broncos, who historically have been great in this series, but awful at home from an ATS standpoint.
8: The number of consecutive games in which the USC Trojans have failed to have a man throw for more than 250 yards against the Washington Huskies. The last quarterback to do it for the Men of Troy wasn’t Matt Barkley or John David Booty or Mark Sanchez. No, it was Matt Leinart way back in 2003 when he threw for over 300 against U-Dub. Since that point, the Trojans have averaged just 210.6 passing yards per game in this series, and the Huskies are going to have to hope that continues in the event that they are going to pull off their third upset in this series over the course of the last four years.
12: The number of teams that are ranked in the Top 25 that have to go on the road this week. What might be even more stunning is that the teams ranked Nos. 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, and 11 in the AP Poll all have to go on the road, and that means that it is inevitable that at least a couple of those are going to get knocked off. Last week, we saw teams ranked 3rd, 4th, and 5th all beaten, and it was a landmark week for teams getting upset in the Top 25. We would bet that of these 12 teams, at least five end up getting upset, and that number could be a heck of a lot bigger when push comes to shove. Three of those teams ranked in the Top 25 (Oregon State, South Carolina, and TCU) are outright underdogs.
24: The number of years that it has been since the Vanderbilt Commodores beat the Florida Gators. Yes, you have to go all the way back to 1988 to find the last time the ‘Dores were able to beat their SEC East rivals, but this is the best chance that they have had this year to get the job done. Sure, the boys from Nashville are still certainly overmatched, especially after watching Florida knock off the LSU Tigers last week at Florida Field. However, it’s a sandwich game for the residents of the Swamp, knowing that there is a home game on tap with the South Carolina Gamecocks, followed by the World’s Largest Cocktail Party against the Georgia Bulldogs in Jacksonville. This could be Vandy’s lucky year.
28: The number representing the biggest favorite of the week. That distinction goes to the Florida State Seminoles against the Boston College Eagles. It might not be a justified number though, knowing that the Noles are coming off of their embarrassing loss last week to the NC State Wolfpack. Even worse for the garnet and gold is that BC has come to Tallahassee three times over the course of the last six years, and in all three games, the Eagles have competed. Twice, they have pulled off a victory in that stretch as well. It’s not really a dangerous game in terms of wins and losses, but this is a huge number to ask for the Seminoles to cover.
31.25: The number that represents the percentage of wins that the Texas Longhorns have had from an ATS standpoint over the course of their last 16 conference games. Yes, Texas is just 5-11 ATS dating back to the 2010 season, and last week’s outright loss to the West Virginia Mountaineers only made matters worse. The game that started this streak was a loss in the Red River Rivalry to these Oklahoma Sooners, who are on tap once again this week, go that 5-11 ATS mark might be made 5-12 by the time Saturday is said and done with.
37.5: The number of the lowest ‘total’ of not just Week 7, but the entire season to date on the college football betting slate. That pitifully low number comes for the Oregon State Beavers and the BYU Cougars, who are going to be squaring off with one another on Saturday at Lavell Edwards Stadium. And who can blame the oddsmakers for this? BYU has held three straight foes to single digits in scoring, and Oregon State is coming into battle without the services of QB Sean Mannion, who suffered a knee injury. That leaves the roster truly gutted, and it comes at a bad time for the 14th ranked team in the country, who seems destined to get whacked on Saturday.
55.0: The number of points per game that the Boise State Broncos have dropped on the Fresno State Bulldogs over the course of the last four seasons. These two used to share the WAC together, but even here in the MWC, nothing has changed as of yet for Fresno State. Not only has the team allowed at least 51 in four straight meetings to Boise State, but it has gotten shellacked by at least 50 in three of those four games. This week could flip the script though, as is almost seems like the Bulldogs have the more talented team coming into this one on the Smurf Turf, a place where the Dogs have never barked all that loudly.
80.5: The number representing the highest ‘total’ of the week. Surprisingly, this isn’t a game that involves either the Baylor Bears, the West Virginia Mountaineers, or any team in the Big XII. Instead, it’s a team that used to be in the Big XII in the Texas A&M Aggies that have the ‘total’ this high. The foe is the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, a team ranked in the Top 25 that might legitimately be in the BCS this year if they can run the table. This was a game that was canceled due to Hurricane Isaac earlier this year, and this ‘total’ has come up two touchdowns as a result. Don’t be shocked if there are well over 150 snaps in this game, as these two teams just want to fly up and down the field.
182:12: The number that represents the last time someone scored a touchdown against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Yes, the Golden Domers held a third straight foe last week out of the end zone, and they have put together quite an impressive run against three very good teams that would have all been in the Top 25 right now had they not lost to Notre Dame. The last team to score a touchdown against the Fighting Irish was the Purdue Boilermakers, and that came on an odd fourth down play with just a few minutes to play to tie the game in South Bend. Since that point, the Golden Domers have outscored their opponents 77-15.
763: The number of rushing yards that QB Braxton Miller has this year for the Ohio State Buckeyes. That leaves Miller third in the land in rushing yards, and it puts him on a pace to rumble for over 1,500 yards this year… as a quarterback! It is unfortunate that the Buckeyes aren’t eligible to win the National Championship this year, because Miller has the numbers that could contend with what QB Geno Smith has done for the West Virginia Mountaineers. Still, Miller is clearly rounding into the next great Urban Meyer quarterback, and that could bode really well for the Bucks down the line.
1994: The number representing the last year that the South Carolina Gamecocks beat the LSU Tigers. The Bayou Bengals have gone 4-0-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in the five games since that point in this series coming into Saturday night’s soiree, the biggest of the evening by far. South Carolina has a chance to prove that it legitimately is one of the best teams in America, and it will do just that if it can go on the road and beat the mighty Tigers. Both of these teams need this one if they have hopes of sticking around in the BCS National Championship discussions, too.
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