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NFL Pick – Week 11

The San Diego Chargers are off to another one of their patented slow starts. Once again the hot seat is getting really hot for Norv Turner. Denver is off to a 6-3 start under the direction of quarterback Peyton Manning. The Broncos beat the Chargers last month in San Diego after trailing 24-0 at halftime, so they’ll be looking for the season sweep in this one.

Game Overview:

Phillip Rivers had an extremely disappointing season last year, and it has been more of the same so far this year. Rivers has had some silly costly turnovers that have really hurt his team in key moments. For the season, Rivers has thrown 15 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He has a quarterback rating of 89.3. In the team’s first meeting with Denver, Rivers threw four interceptions. Malcolm Floyd has become his favorite target on the outside. Antonio Gates has struggled again this year with his health, and he has just 28 receptions on the season. Ryan Matthews is running well now that he is healthy. The Chargers are 22nd in the NFL in total offense.

San Diego’s defense has been pretty good this year. The Chargers are terrific against the run, but they are only mediocre against the pass. In the first meeting against Denver, the Chargers stopped the run very well, but Peyton Manning threw for 309 yards and three touchdowns. The Chargers will have to get some more pressure on Manning in this game. San Diego is giving up 21.2 points per game.

Peyton Manning has been superb in his first season with the Denver Broncos. The questions about how Manning would fare coming off a major injury have been answered in a big way. He has thrown 21 touchdowns and just six interceptions this season. Manning is completing 70 percent of his passes, and he has a terrific quarterback rating of 108.0. As you would expect from Manning, he has been spreading the ball around very well. Six Broncos players have at least 23 receptions this year. Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker have been his top targets. Willis McGahee is having a resurgent season in the backfield, which helps keep the defense honest. Denver is putting up 30.1 points per game, which is second best in the NFL.

The Broncos defense has a scary combination of pass rushers with Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil on the outside of the defense. Miller already has ten sacks on the year, while Dumervil has seven. Champ Bailey is still one of the best cover corners in the league, and the Broncos have been solid in all aspects of the game on this side of the ball. Denver is allowing 21 points per game.

Free NFL Pick: Over 48

Both offenses should be able to move the ball, and both defenses are capable of getting a defensive touchdown or two as well. Look for a higher scoring game than most expect.

Broncos 31 Chargers 23