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NFL Pick – Week 11

Game Overview

The Chicago Bears were not only beat 13-6 by Houston last Sunday night as one-point favorites at home, they were beat up as well. The main casualty was quarterback Jay Cutler, who is listed as doubtful for Monday night after getting knocked out of last week’s game with a concussion. The Bears are still in first place in the NFC North at 7-2 straight-up and 5-4 against the spread and the total has gone OVER in four of their last six games.

The loss of Cutler could be huge as Chicago tries to fend off Green Bay in the division race, but the Bears still have one of the most opportunistic defenses in the league that can completely change the complexion of any game in its dogged pursuit of big plays and turnovers. Chicago will need a complete effort from this unit in this matchup with Jason Campbell taking over the reins of an offense that was already ranked 28th in the NFL.

San Francisco has its own problems at quarterback with Alex Smith listed as questionable with a concussion of his own. To make matters worse, the 49ers are coming off one of their poorest performances of the year in a rare 24-24 overtime tie against St. Louis as 13.5-point home favorites. They are now 6-2-1 SU (5-4 ATS) on the year with the total staying UNDER in five of the last seven games.

This has been a very frustrating team to handicap this season as just when everyone wants to jump of the 49ers’ bandwagon and declare them the best team in the NFC, they have a way a turning in a performance such as this. The good news is that San Francisco still has a powerful ground game behind Frank Gore that is averaging 170.2 yards a game to complement a defense that is ranked first in the league in points allowed.

Prediction:

The reality that neither of these teams is as good as advertised has become evident over the past week. Take Cutler away from the Bears and they will be lucky to score more than 10 points. Throw in San Francisco’s spotty offense and shutdown defense and the solid play in this game is on the UNDER on the total line. Chicago vs. San Francisco UNDER 39