NFL Picks

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NFL Pick – Week 12

Game Overview

Atlanta has raced out to a 9-1 straight-up (6-4 against the spread) start that has it three games ahead of Tampa Bay in the NFC South and holding a two-game lead for the No.1 seed in the entire conference. The Falcons are 4-1 both SU and ATS on the road this season and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last six games.

Despite this team’s lofty record, there is still some cause for concern after Matt Ryan’s five interceptions in last week’s improbable 23-19 victory over Arizona as a 9.5-point home favorite. This followed a 31-27 loss to New Orleans as a one-point favorite on the road making most bettors question just how good this team really is. It may be a mid-season slump or a bit of complacency setting in, but the Falcons suddenly look very beatable as opposed to how they did when they were dominating teams earlier in the year.

Tampa Bay comes into this matchup riding a four-game winning streak in which its offense has put up an average of 34.8 points a game. It is now 6-4 SU on the year and a very profitable 8-2 ATS. The Buccaneers have gone 3-2 SU and ATS at home this season and the total has gone OVER in their last seven games overall.

This offensive explosion has been led by rookie running back Doug Martin, who now has 1000 yards rushing on the season, and a revitalized Josh Freeman at quarterback. After taking a major step backwards last season, Freeman has already thrown for 2,505 yards and 21 touchdowns in his first 10 games this year. Another plus has been the play of Tampa Bay’s defense which was victimized in last year’s second half collapse. This season, it is still struggling against the pass but ranked first in the NFL against the run, which could be key against an Atlanta team that relies heavily on its ground game.

Prediction:

Atlanta still has a very comfortable lead in the division, but a loss on Sunday could suddenly make things a bit more interesting. Tampa Bay still needs this game much more than the Falcons do and that added intensity is enough to carry the Bucs to the win.

Tampa Bay 24 Atlanta 21