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Game Overview

In what should be the ‘game of the year’ in the AFC, the Texans come into this showdown at 11-1 straight-up (8-4 against the spread) and still looking to clinch the AFC South over the pesky Colts. A win or Indianapolis loss would lock things up, but Houston has its sights set on a much bigger prize; the No.1 seed in the conference throughout the playoffs. It is just 4-4 ATS in its last eight games and the total has stayed UNDER in three of its last five.

There was a bit of concern with the Texans’ vaunted defense over the past few weeks after giving-up a combined 68 points in back-to-back overtime victories over Jacksonville and Detroit, but it appeared to return to form in last Sunday’s 24-10 win over Tennessee. There are a few injury concerns on this side of the ball with linebackers Bradie James and Brooks Reid listed as questionable for Monday night after missing last week’s game against the Titans. The return of cornerback Johnathan Joseph, who has been out since Week 11, remains questionable as well.

New England clinched yet another AFC East title with last week’s 23-16 win over Miami as an eight-point road favorite. The victory pushed the Patriots’ overall record to 9-3 SU but they dropped to 7-5 ATS. They are 4-1 SU at home this season but just 2-3 ATS. The total stayed UNDER against Miami after going OVER in their previous nine games.

Along with the Texans, New England has been one of the most balanced teams in the league on offense this season. Tom Brady continues to light up the skies with 3,537 passing yards and 25 touchdowns, while running back Steven Ridley has had a breakout season with 1,010 yards and nine scores on the ground. The Patriots’ defense is still giving-up huge chunks of yardage each week, especially through the air, but remains stingy on the scoreboard by allowing an average of just 21.7 points a game.

Prediction:

This showdown has AFC Championship Game preview written all over it as two of the most complete teams in the league take the field in Foxborough on Monday night. This one should go deep into the fourth quarter and remain a three-point game either way. That being said, take Houston and the extra half point on the current 3.5 spread in a tight one.

New England 33 Houston 30