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Military Bowl Pick – December 27th

Bowling Green made a run at this season’s MAC East Division title but a late-season 31-24 loss to Kent State as a 2.5-point home favorite ended its chances. The Falcons went on to finish 6-2 straight-up in conference play and 8-4 both SU and against the spread overall. They were a winner just about every week on the total line with the total staying UNDER in 10 of their 11 games with a posted line.

Most of the Falcons’ success this season hinged on a shutdown defense that held opponents to an average of just 15.8 points a game. In a 7-1 run to close-out the regular season, this unit only gave-up more than 14 points once. The offense is led by quarterback Matt Schilz, who threw for 2,426 yards and 14 touchdowns while completing just 56 percent of his attempts and tossing 12 interceptions.

The Spartans finished second in the WAC at 5-1 SU with their only loss coming to the conference champion Utah State Aggies in a 49-27 loss as 2.5-point home favorites. San Jose State went on to win its final six games after that loss to finish 10-2 both SU and ATS. The total went OVER in seven of their 11 games with a posted line.

This team had no problem moving the ball up and down the field especially with a passing game that averaged 327.5 yards a game. Quarterback David Fales completed an amazing 72 percent of his passes for 3,798 yards and 31 touchdowns. The Spartans showed tremendous balance on both sides of the ball with an offense that averaged 35.3 points a game complementing a defense that held opponents to 21.4 points a game.

Prediction:

There is no doubt that Bowling Green brings a rock-solid defense into this matchup but you have to question how well it will handle Fales and an almost unstoppable passing attack. My guess is that it won’t resulting in an easy romp for the Spartans.

San Jose State 28 Bowling Green 13