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NCAA Basketball Pick – December 29th

Two of the favorites to win the NCAA Tournament are going to battle it out in the clash to claim the Commonwealth in Saturday’s biggest college basketball betting bash, as the Louisville Cardinals play host to the Kentucky Wildcats.

The Cats have done a lot of learning over the course of the last few weeks. They have already proven that they really can’t stick with the best teams in America, at least at this point, though of the three losses that the club has taken, only the one against the Baylor Bears really has us scratching our heads. Almost quietly, UK has stormed back since that point to claim four straight games, going 4-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in those outings and winning by an average final score of 83-51. F Nerlens Noel is really starting to refine his game after a slow start, and he a man that has the ability to really fill the stat sheet. This year, he is averaging 10.7 points, 9.1 boards, 3.8 blocks, 2.7 steals, and 1.8 assists per game, and all of that is coming in a season in which he has just 1.7 turnovers per game as well. The top scorers on the club are G Archie Goodwin (16.0 PPG), F Alex Poythress (14.5 PPG), and F Kyle Wiltjer (11.4 PPG), so there really isn’t a problem with the fact that Noel is just the fourth leading scorer on the team. He is built in the F Anthony Davis type of mold as a defensive monster, but there is still a lot of work that he has to do on his scoring game to make it at the next level.

The Cardinals are one of the best teams in the country, and their only trip this year came in a tough game against the Duke Blue Devils. C Gorgui Dieng has only played in five games this year, but he is expected to be back in the fold in this one. We would be surprised if he didn’t revert back to his form from last year when he averaged 9.1 points, 9.1 boards, and 3.8 blocks per game in what should be a great battle with Noel. G Russ Smith and G Peyton Siva are still doing the job in the backcourt, and Smith is one of the top scorers in America right now at 19.7 points per game. These two also have 62 steals between them in just 12 games, and they’re a big part of the reason why the ‘Ville is averaging a healthy 11.8 steals per game.

Prediction:

We expect to see the Cardinals open up as relatively healthy favorites, but we aren’t so sure that it is justified. This could be the game where Kentucky comes back to the rest of the world and proclaims that it indeed is still a National Championship contender. Kentucky 78 – Louisville 75