2013 College Football Betting: Top 10 Over Teams from 2012
1: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs – Head Coach Sonny Dykes had himself a heck of a team last season, and he brought a real high octane offense to the club. The Bulldogs averaged 578.2 yards and 51.5 points per game last season, easily the best marks in the country on both regards. As a result, the oddsmakers just couldn’t set a low enough ‘total’. The team went 11-1 for ‘over’ bettors on the season, and the only loss in the bunch was an uncharacteristic 28-14 win over New Mexico State. Not only did La Tech end up scoring that 11-1 ‘over’ record, but it averaged 90.0 points per game last season. You’re not going to see an average higher than that in the country this season, that’s for sure.
2: Tennessee Volunteers – The Volunteers posted a 9-2 record for ‘over’ bettors last year, and in the SEC, that’s a heck of an accomplishment. The Tennessee defense just wasn’t all that great, but QB Tyler Bray did everything he could against the big time defenses in the SEC. The team had a heck of a receiving duo in WR Justin Hunter and WR Cordarrelle Patterson, but with all of the all of the best players from this offense now gone, it’s tough to see how there could possibly be that many ‘overs’ this season for the Volunteer Nation, especially with the fact that these SEC defense are only getting better and better.
3: Marshall Thundering Herd – Marshall was all about the passing game last season, and the end result was a number of ridiculously high scoring games. The Thundering Herd averaged 365.1 passing yards per game with QB Rakeem Cato chucking the pigskin all over the field. Of course, in the end, it was the Marshall defense that put the team at just 5-7 last season and outside of a bowl game. Marshall averaged allowing 43.1 points per game last season, ranking just 123rd in the land. The end result? Nine ‘over’ contests against just two ‘unders’, and one of the best marks for ‘over’ bettors in the country. With Cato coming back this year, throwing for 5,000+ yards and averaging near 50 points per game isn’t out of the question.
4: Duke Blue Devils – Head Coach David Cutcliffe really had the Dookies playing well last year, and there was attention on the program heading into December for the first time in decades. Duke went to a bowl game, and it nearly made it to the ACC Championship Game as well. The Blue Devils got to that point thanks to an offense that was led by QB Sean Renfree, which guided the team to 31.5 points per game. The defense still has a heck of a lot of work to do to improve though, and until that ultimately happens, the ‘over’ train is going to continue. Last year, the Blue Devils went 9-2-1 for ‘over’ backers.
5: Louisiana Monroe Warhawks – The Warhawks were the toast of the town at the start of the year. They beat Arkansas right off the bat on the road, and they darn near took down both Auburn and Baylor as well. That said, an 8-5 season ended up being a disappointment after getting blown away by Ohio in their bowl game. However, for our purposes, Louisiana Monroe played a ton of ‘over’ games last season, going 9-3-1 for ‘over’ bettors. The offense for the Warhawks was solid, but it had a four games in the last five in the season in which they scored just 24 points or fewer. It makes us wonder whether QB Kolton Browning can pull this off for the Sun Belt reps once again this season.
6: Arizona Wildcats – There nation’s leading rusher last season was RB Ka’Deem Carey for the Wildcats, and he really came on strong at the end of the season to guide the club to one of the best ‘over’ marks in the country at 9-3. QB Matt Scott was now slouch either, guided the U of A to 298.4 passing yards per game as well. Head Coach Rich Rodriguez has a typical team on his side right now, as the club averaged 38.2 points per game and 526.2 yards per game, but in the end, it averaged allowing 499.0 yards and 35.3 points per game as well. The Pac-12 is wide open, and though the ‘totals’ are always high in this conference, there is a great opportunity to once again post another great year for ‘over’ bettors.
7: UCF Knights – UCF built its program on the back of running the ball and playing stellar defense, but last season, that wasn’t quite the case in spite of the fact that the team went 10-4. It also went 10-4 for ‘over’ bettors, the most ‘overs’ that the team has ever had in a season in school history. The team only averaged 57.5 points per game, so it isn’t that the numbers were just ridiculously high. QB Blake Bortles came on strong at the end of the year, and he had a great running game to rely upon as well. The defense for UCF had too many suspect games, though it did rank 27th in the nation at 22.1 points per game. It will be interesting to see how the Knights transition into the newly dubbed American Athletic Conference in a year in which they are stuck on bowl probation.
8: Indiana Hoosiers – The Hoosiers have been awful for years and years, and last season was no exception. They went 4-8 and were fortunate to win a couple games against Big Ten teams. The team started the year with six straight ‘over’ games, and it ended the year with three ‘overs’ in a row, and that’s why it had one of the best ‘over’ records in the country at 9-3. The defense watched 41+ points dropped on the board against it in six games last year, and that isn’t going to cut it with an offense which really doesn’t feature all that much in the way of superstars. IU has some growing to do if it is going to ultimately compete again in the Big Ten.
9: Baylor Bears – Air Bear! Baylor’s offense has been crazy over the course of the last few years, and the team didn’t take a single step backwards, even after losing QB Robert Griffin III, the Heisman Trophy winner to the NFL after the 2011 season. QB Nick Florence led the team to 572.2 yards and 44.5 points per game, and Baylor even changed the national scene when it beat Kansas State on national television in one of the last games of the regular season. The Bears once again had no defense, which was no surprise whatsoever, and the end result was a 9-3 mark for ‘over’ bettors. With eight home games on tap this year, there is no reason not to think that this won’t be another year of high flying football in Waco.
10: UCLA Bruins – The team that Baylor beat in the Holiday Bowl last season, UCLA finishes out our list of the Top 10 ‘over’ teams from last season, as the Bruins went 9-4 towards the ‘over’ and were the second best ‘over’ team in the Pac-12 behind Arizona. QB Brett Hundley really came on strong in his freshman year, throwing for 3,740 yards. He’s going to need to whip the ball around the field more now with RB Johnathan Franklin now gone, as that takes over 1,700 rushing yards away from the team. The schedule stinks for the Bruins this season, as they have to play six road games, including a non-conference game against Nebraska in Lincoln. The end result might be a ton more ‘overs’.