March 25, 2013

2013 Heisman Trophy Futures

College Football Betting Trends- 2013 Heisman Trophy Futures

Much of the talk these days when it comes to football is about this year’s NFL college draft, which will be held from Thursday, April 25 through Saturday, April 27. While the experts try and figure out what position last year’s top college players will be selected, this week’s college football betting trends is taking a look at which returning players have the best chance to win the sport’s biggest and most prestigious individual award; the 2013 Heisman Trophy.

At the top of Bovada’s current list of futures odds to win next season’s award is this last season’s winner, Johnny Manziel at 4/1. Johnny Football, as he is more commonly referred to, came out of nowhere to help lead Texas A&M to an improbable 11-2 record and No.5 ranking in the final AP Top 25 Poll. The team’s most memorable moment of 2012 was its 29-24 victory over then-No.1 Alabama as a 13.5-point road underdog. Manziel finished the season with 3,706 passing yards and 26 touchdowns while completing 68 percent of this throws. He also added another 1,410 yards and 21 touchdowns on the ground. Given the fact that he accomplished all this as just a freshman, the pressure to deliver these kinds on numbers next season will be dialed-up pretty high making a repeat performance all the more difficult.

The second-favorite on the list at 7/1 is Ohio State quarterback Braxton Miller. He is another player that was extremely instrumental in his team’s success last season, but given that the Buckeyes were serving-out a one year suspension from postseason play as a result of NCAA sanctions, the team’s perfect 12-0 campaign did not receive the recognition it deserved. With full eligibility for next season restored, look for Miller to not only make a strong push for winning the Heisman, but for Ohio State to make and even stronger push for a national title. While Miller’s overall numbers last season did not come anywhere close to Manziel’s with 2,039 yards passing and 1,271 yards on the ground, his upside potential for this upcoming season adds tremendous value to his current odds.

The last time a wide receiver won this award was back in 1991 when Michigan’s Desmond Howard took home the Heisman. That fact alone drains some of the value for third-favorite Marquis Lee at 9/1 to win. The USC wideout turned in a stand-out season in 2012 despite his team playing well below expectations. Lee caught 118 passes for 1,721 yards, which was the second-highest total in Division IA last season. He also scored 14 touchdowns, which was the most on the team. His quarterback last season, Matt Barkley is trying to move on to the NFL, but Lee should still get his fair share of opportunities to catch the ball in 2013 no matter who is behind center.

The fourth-favorites to win next season’s Heisman Trophy at 10/1 are a couple of SEC quarterbacks in Alabama’s AJ McCarron and Georgia’s Aaron Murray. If you are looking for the best value in these odds, than you have to go with Murray as your pick. McCarron will once again be tasked with managing the game while the Crimson Tide’s bruising running game and shutdown defense try and add a third national title trophy to the case in a four-year span. McCarron’s total passing yards improved slightly from 2011 to 2012 with an additional 300 yards and he went from throwing 16 touchdowns as a sophomore to 30 last season as a junior.

Murray threw for close to 4000 yards last season after throwing for 3,149 his sophomore year. His touchdown passes remained basically the same with 35 in 2011 verse 36 last year, but his completion percentage shot up from 59.1 percent to 64.5 percent from 2011 to 2012. Given the Bulldogs reliance on Murray to move the offense up and down the field, the potential remains high for Murray to put up even more impressive numbers next season.

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Dave Schwab

DJ is a freelance writer that concentrates on his true passion in life; the world of sports. He produces a number of articles each week for BangTheBook.com as well as a select group of other websites that specialize in providing the most up-to-date information for the sports gaming industry. His goal is to write insightful articles on a wide variety of sporting topics that can provide an edge to today's sophisticated online player.

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