Before the start of every NFL regular season Bookmaker releases its futures odds for the projected win totals of all 32 teams and they are currently listed for 2013. These are some of the hardest prop bet odds to handicap considering that much of the rational for the numbers is based on last season’s results, but there is always some low-hanging fruit on the list.
After digging a bit deeper into this year’s odds, NFL Betting Trends has identified a few teams that standout as an excellent play on the UNDER for this prop.
The first team on the list is the New England Patriots with its current odds posted as OVER 11 Wins (+110) and UNDER 11 Wins (-140). The Patriots went 12-4 last season and in Bill Belichick’s 13 seasons at the helm as head coach his team has won more than 11 games seven times including in each of the last three seasons. The fact we are going UNDER 11 on this team has absolutely nothing to do with last season and everything to do with this offseason.
Wes Welker is off to Denver, Aaron Hernandez is off to jail and there is no clear time-table for the return of Rob Gronkowski. Behind future ‘Hall of Fame’ quarterback Tom Brady, the Patriots were ranked fourth in the NFL in passing last season, but these three players accounted for close to 60 percent of those yards. New England will find a way to fill the gaps because that is what it always does, but a 10-6 record this season suddenly seems much more realistic.
Our next team to play the UNDER on is the Minnesota Vikings. Their current odds are OVER 7.5 Wins (-125) and UNDER 7.5 Wins (-105). The Vikings went from 3-13 in 2011 to an amazing 10-6 last season, but they also had quite a few things fall into place during that run. Running back Adrian Peterson turned-in a season for the ages with 2,097 rushing yards and Minnesota had the benefit of a softer schedule as a result of the previous year’s record.
The Vikings are not going to sneak up on anyone this season and with the likes of the AFC North and NFC East on the schedule squeezing-out those extra three victories to match last year’s total suddenly becomes a very tall task considering the tough competition in their own division. Their current win total projection appears to be right on the mark with a 7-9 record in 2013.
The final team on our list to stay UNDER their projected win total is the San Diego Chargers. They are listed at OVER 7.5 (+100) and UNDER 7.5 (-130). Once the pride of the AFC West with nine or more victories in six of seven seasons from 2004 until 2010, the Chargers have been in a downward spiral ever since with an 8-8 record in 2011 and a 7-9 record last season.
There has been a change at the top with Mike McCoy taking over the head coaching duties for Norv Turner, but this team has already been depleted of much of the talent that accounted for all those wins during that seven-year run. Philip Rivers is still a viable starting quarterback in the NFL, but his production continues decline with each passing year. Look for another step backwards this season to five or six wins as it looks like it is going to be a multi-year rebuilding process in San Diego.
DJ is a freelance writer that concentrates on his true passion in life; the world of sports. He produces a number of articles each week for BangTheBook.com as well as a select group of other websites that specialize in providing the most up-to-date information for the sports gaming industry. His goal is to write insightful articles on a wide variety of sporting topics that can provide an edge to today's sophisticated online player.