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NCAA Basketball Pick – January 3rd

The Big Ten season starts for college basketball betting fans on Thursday night, and the first game for the Michigan Wolverines could prove to be a massive challenge on the road in Evanston against the hungry Northwestern Wildcats.

Michigan is clearly the better of the two teams, and it might be well on its way to the Big Ten title this year. That being said, we have a real concern about the fact that this is the first conference game on the road for Big Blue. The Wolverines only played one legitimate road game all non-conference season long, and that came at the Bradley Braves, a far cry from Northwestern or any of the other teams that could go dancing in the Big Ten this year. The toughest game was a good one against the NC State Wolfpack, and that victory could come back to pay dividends come March. However, there is a long way to go to get the job done this year. There are really just four players that make Michigan go on a regular basis. The team is averaging 80.1 points per game, but 59.5 of that comes from the combination of G Trey Burke, G Tim Hardaway Jr., G Nik Stauskas, and F Glenn Robinson III. What’s really missing on this team is a big time rebounder as well, as no one is averaging more than Robinson on the glass with just 5.9 boards per game.

The Wildcats know that they are going to have a chance to get into the NCAA Tournament this year if they can figure out how to win at least 10 games in the Big Ten season, but that’s going to be tough, especially with G Drew Crawford, the squad’s second leading scorer out for the season. What’s worse now is that G Reggie Hearn has an ankle problem that is going to keep him on the sidelines for the second straight game as well. What’s left is a bit of a cut and paste team that is going to have to rely upon its defense and the little experience that it has to try to win games. The Wildcats do only turn the ball over 10.8 times per game, and that number can’t get much beyond 10 or so for them to have a shot at the upset in this one. G Dave Sobolewski is going to have to be the team’s leading scorer in this one, as he is good for 11.3 points per game. The only other men that could have big impacts here are F Jared Swopshire (8.8 PPG, 6.0 RPG) and C Alex Olah (7.2 PPG, 4.5 RPG). If these three step it up, Northwestern can hang. If they don’t, this will be another brutal defeat.

Prediction:

Don’t be all that shocked if the Wolverines struggle, even with a makeshift lineup on the court for the Cats. Northwestern has a lot of fight in it, and giving this team 11 points to get started is going to be a heck of a lot. This is the game that Swopshire will shine, and the Wildcats will at least keep this one close. Michigan 68 – Northwestern 62