NFL Playoffs Pick

NFL Betting Game Trends

Game Overview

Baltimore took its first step towards a return trip to the AFC Championship with a solid 24-9 victory over Indianapolis as a 7.5-point home favorite in last Sunday’s Wildcard Round. The problem is it now has to go on the road and get past the red-hot Broncos to get there. The Ravens stumbled down the stretch in the regular season with just one win in its last five games both straight-up and against the spread to finish 11-6 SU and 7-9-1 ATS overall. The total stayed UNDER the 47.5-point line against the Colts and it has now stayed UNDER in their last three games.

If the Ravens are going to have any shot at upending Denver it will be behind their defense and their running game. Joe Flacco threw for 282 yards and two touchdowns last week but he still only completed 52 percent of his passes. Ray Rice ran for 70 yards but it was Bernard Pierce that stole the show with 103 yards on 13 carries. Defensively, there is some concern with minor injuries to linebackers Terrell Suggs and Dannell Ellerbe. Suggs is listed as probable but Ellerbe remains questionable at this time.

The well-rested Broncos, who had a bye last week as the top seed in the AFC, remain the odds-on-favorite to win the conference at 11/10 and the Super Bowl at 11/4 on Bovada’s latest futures board. Led by a resurgent Peyton Manning, the team went 13-3 SU in the regular season and 10-6 ATS. Denver is currently riding an 11-game winning streak and is 4-0 ATS in its last four games. The total has gone OVER in three of the last five games.

Manning finished the season with 4,659 passing yards and 37 touchdowns while completing 68.6 percent of his throws. Demaryius Thomas was his favorite target with 94 receptions for 1,434 yards and 10 touchdowns, but Eric Decker, who also had over 1000 yards receiving this season, led the team with 13 touchdown catches. All this production on offense was backed-up by a defense that was ranked second in the NFL in total yards allowed and fourth in points allowed. With a combination like this it is easy to see why Denver is favored to win it all.

Prediction

Baltimore was good enough at home to get by the Colts, but it is way over its head against the Broncos on the road. The Ravens already lost to this team 34-17 at home in Week 15 as three-point favorites and they will once again struggle to keep the score closer than 10 points this time around as well. Denver 27 Baltimore 13