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This game might not get the publicity that some do on the East Coast, but the St. Mary’s-Gonzaga rivalry has been about as good as any in the past few years. These two schools hate each other and it shows every time they meet on the basketball floor. Gonzaga is a top ten team right now, but St. Mary’s would love nothing more than to upset them on their home floor. Can they pull it off as a double digit underdog?

Game Overview:

St. Mary’s has lost some talent in the past couple years, so there aren’t quite the team they used to be. Still, the Gaels are absolutely capable of beating almost anyone when they are shooting the ball well. As a team, St. Mary’s knocks down 41% from beyond the arc, and they shoot 77% from the free throw line. Veteran point guard Matthew Dellavedova is one of the better guards in the country, and he is capable of carrying this team on his back for long stretches. The Gaels are averaging 79.5 points per game this season.

The biggest difference between this year’s team and the Gaels team from a couple years ago is that this team doesn’t have the same inside presence. Without a real scorer in the interior, the best teams will stretch their defense and force St. Mary’s to beat them with something other than the three-ball. Defensively, St. Mary’s allows opponents to shoot almost 40 percent from beyond the arc. They are a good defensive rebounding team. The Gaels give up 66 points per game.

While St. Mary’s may be a bit down this season, Gonzaga is as good as ever. The Bulldogs are built to make a Final Four run. Mark Few’s team is strong at all positions, and the team’s depth is much better than it has been in the past. Elias Harris and Kevin Pangos were expected to be great for this team, and they have been. Kelly Olynyk was never expected to be the dominant center that he has become. Olynyk actually leads the team in scoring at 17.1 points per game. He and Harris form one of the best one-two combinations in the post in the entire country.

Gonzaga’s strength in the backcourt with Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell Jr. is also terrific. David Stockton would be a starter for most teams at the point guard, but he is a quality backup for the Zags. Ten players average at least 11 minutes per game, which shows just how deep this team truly is. Gonzaga’s strength on the inside gives them a rebounding advantage almost every game. The Bulldogs are shooting 51.5% from the floor, which is fourth best in the country. Defensively, the Bulldogs are only allowing opponents to shoot 40% from the floor.

Free Pick: St. Mary’s +11
Gonzaga is definitely the better team here, but in a rivalry game like this I’ll take the double digit underdog. Look for a closer game than the oddsmakers expect.
Gonzaga 80 St. Mary’s 73