March Madness Picks

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The Duke Blue Devils will begin their quest for a national title in the first of 16 games on Friday’s slate in the Round of 64 for this year’s NCAA Tournament. They come in still licking their wounds from a disappointing 83-74 loss to Maryland as 10-point favorites in last week’s ACC Tournament. The Blue Devils are 27-5 straight-up this season but 17-15 against the spread. The total has gone OVER in four of their last six games.

Duke’s biggest attribute not only for winning this game but for a making a deep run in this tournament is the health of Ryan Kelly. He missed 13 games this season due to injury, but when he was on the floor he averaged 14.3 points and 5.4 rebounds to complement Mason Plumlee and Seth Curry. That dynamic duo has combined for 34.2 points and 12.6 rebounds this season. Overall, Duke is averaging 78.3 points a game while shooting 47.6 percent from the field.

It will be a tall task to keep this game closer than the 17.5-point spread, but the Great Danes have a few weapons of their own to make a game of this 2 verse 15 matchup. Mike Black leads the team with 14.9 points, but Jacob Iati is also scoring in double figures with an average of 12.1 points a game. Albany is shooting 43.8 percent from the field with Iati hitting 41 percent of his shots from three-point range.

While the majority of Albany’s games this season went off without a posted line, it did cover in two of its last three games on the way to the America East Tournament title. The total stayed UNDER in all three games. The Great Danes are averaging 64.4 points a game and holding opponents to an average of 60.3 points on the other end of the court.

Prediction

Duke has never been known for fast starts out of the gate in the NCAA Tournament and is 1-4 ATS in its last five tournament games. While the Blue Devils will not be in any danger of losing this game, look for Albany to play well enough to cover with the points.

Duke 72 Albany 59