November 25, 2013

49ers vs. Redskins Monday Night Football Prop Picks

Bet at 5dimesIt’s Monday night, and that means that there is just one more game with which to handicap on the NFL card. The Washington Redskins will play host to the San Francisco 49ers in this edition of Monday Night Football, and we have some great MNF props covered so you can find an alternative way to beat the NFL betting lines in this one.

Colin Kaepernick Under 219.5 Passing Yards – This one is easy. Kaepernick just isn’t trusted to put the football in the air under much of any circumstance. The former Nevada Wolf Pack hero threw for over 400 yards in his first game of the season, and he hasn’t done a lick of anything since that point. In his last two games, Kaepernick has only combined for 218 passing yards, and though the time is going to come where he is forced to have a game where he puts the ball in the air 35-40 times, this really isn’t going to be that game in all likelihood.

Colin Kaepernick Over 0.5 Interceptions – Again, we’re just playing the percentages here. The reason that Head Coach Jim Harbaugh doesn’t put the ball in the air is because he has been making too many mistakes. He threw three INTs against the Seattle Seahawks back in Week 2, and he has a pick in four of his eight games since that point, including in two in a row. It’s sort of in his head at this point, and if that stays the case, it is clear that there is at least a 55% chance that Kaepernick is going to get picked off in this game.

Anquan Boldin Under 60.5 Receiving Yards & Vernon Davis Under 62.5 Receiving Yards – See: Kaepernick, Colin. If we don’t trust Kaepernick to throw the ball for anywhere 200 yards, it’s going to be difficult for either Davis or Boldin to get to their totals either.

Alfred Morris Under 89.5 Rushing Yards (+105) – Morris has had five straight games in the 90s in yards this year, but he hasn’t had a tremendous game against one of the elite rushing teams in the league. There’s a big difference between rolling over the Eagles, Vikings, Chargers, Broncos, and Bears, and running against these 49ers. San Francisco might only have a middle of the road rush defense in terms of yards per game, but it is one of the truly elite defenses when it comes to yards per carry allowed. We have a tough time believing that Morris is going to end up getting into the 90s or beyond without busting a big run, and though he has had six straight games with a run of at least 21 yards, we think that today is the day that that all comes to a close.

Will Either Team Score Three Unanswered Times? – This is a prop you see a lot of, but don’t really think about betting all that often. It seems in an NFL game like there would be fewer examples of teams don’t score three or more times than there are, but believe it or not, that really isn’t the case. In this game, we fully expect that the possibility is there for either team to do it. The 49ers are clearly the superior side, but that doesn’t mean they are necessarily the ones we are betting on. The Redskins have shown before, just like in games against the Eagles to start off the season, that they can score points in bunches, especially at home with QB Robert Griffin III calling the shots. We have to think that, even though this prop is only at -190 and seems to be a sucker bet, that there has to be an example in this game at least two out of three times in which one of these teams is going to put three straight scores on the board at some point.

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Adam Markowitz

is a staff writer living in the Orlando area. He has covered NFL, MLB, college football, CFL, AFL, NBA, college basketball, NASCAR, golf, tennis, and the NHL for a number of various outlets in his career, and he has been published by a number of different media outlets, including the Orlando Sentinel and the Wall Street Journal.

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