The 2012 NFL betting season is underway, and 5Dimes Sportsbook already has a list of outstanding prop bets that are open for the first game of the season between the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys. Join us as we make our NFL prop picks for this great game!
Tony Romo Under 280.5 Passing Yards: This New York defense has been absolutely nasty of late, holding teams down to just 14.0 points per game in its last six games dating back to the end of the regular season. Romo has averaged right around 267 passing yards per game in his career, and he appears to be towards the tail end of that career, at least according to his owner, Jerry Jones. We just don’t see how Romo is going to threaten the 300+ yard mark more often than not in this one against such a great defense that is improving in the secondary by the day.
Eli Manning Under 297.5 Passing Yards: Yes, Manning nearly threw for 5,000 yards last year, but this is going to be a bit of a different game. The Cowboys might not have been the best defensive team in the world last year, but the addition of cover corner DB Mo Claiborne is going to help out a ton. Add in the pressure that Manning is going to face from off the edge from LB DeMarcus Ware, and the passing yards just might not be able to add up all that quickly. Defenses are usually ahead of offenses in terms of timing and precision, and we don’t think there that are many quarterbacks in the league that are going to throw for at least 300 yards in Week 1. Manning is no exception.
Victor Cruz Under 90.5 Receiving Yards: Is it just us, or is Cruz a total flash in the pan? We just tend to think that he is brutally overrated at this point, as we aren’t so sure that he is the best receiver on his team, let alone the third best receiver in the league as his stats suggest from a campaign ago. There will be more attention paid to Cruz this year for sure, as he is no longer just that cute third receiver that the Giants have. It’s hard to think that he is going to get to 91 yards more often than not against the Cowboys in spite of the fact that Claiborne probably won’t be matched up against Cruz all that often.
Total Sacks Under 4.5: This is the biggest sucker bet on the board. You would think that with pass rushers like DE Jason Pierre-Paul and the aforementioned Ware that there would be at least five sacks in this game. Now, it’s true that these two offensive lines have had their histories of being shaky against great pressure, but there was just one instance in the last four meetings between these teams in which there has been at least five sacks. In three of the last six, neither team logged more than a single sack. That’s about what we’re expecting this time around as well. Seeing three or four sacks is a distinct possibility, but getting to five is going to be awfully hard. Especially at even money, there is no way that we are a long term loser on this NFL prop.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.