Valero Alamo Bowl Pick – December 29th
The Beavers had their chances this season with a 6-0 straight-up start, but a 3-3 record down the stretch including losses to Stanford and Oregon kept them in a mid-level bowl. Oregon State finished the season 9-3 SU and 8-4 against the spread. The total went OVER in its final four games with a posted line.
Putting points on the board was not an issue for the Beavers this season with an average of 33 a game. Led by a potent passing attack that averaged 316.4 yards a game, they racked-up 36 points or more in five games this season. The defense did its part by holding opponents to an average of 19.8 points a game but it became unhinged in a 48-24 loss to Oregon in these teams’ annual year-end clash.
Texas started the season with high aspirations of bringing home a Big 12 title this season but things turned into a struggle with one bad loss after another. The Longhorns finished 8-4 SU overall and a disappointing 5-4 SU in conference play. They went a costly 2-6 ATS down the stretch to finish 5-7 ATS overall. The total stayed UNDER in four of their last five games.
Instability at the quarterback position caused some of this team’s issues with both David Ash and Case McCoy spending time under center. The Longhorns still managed to throw for an average of 265 yards a game and put up an average of 36.1 points on the scoreboard. The real issues were on the defensive side of the ball. Overall, this unit ranked 73rd in the country in points allowed and was torched for 63 points in a loss to Oklahoma and 42 points in s season-ending loss to Kansas State.
Neither team looked too solid down the stretch but Oregon State proved itself to still be the better all-around team with much more consistency from week to week. It might be a bit of a home-field advantage for Texas with game in San Antonio, but stick with the Beavers to still come out on top by more than the two-point spread.
Oregon State 27 Texas 23