January 18, 2013

Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots AFC Championship Free Pick

AFC Championship Game Pick

Preview


Baltimore Ravens
vs.
New England Patriots

Date/Time: Sunday, Jan.20 6:30 p.m. (ET)

Television: CBS

NFL Odds from VietBet

Point Spread: New England -8.5

Total: 51

 

NFL Betting Game Trends

Baltimore Ravens

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore’s last 7 games when playing on the road against New England
  • Baltimore is 2-4-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against New England
  • Baltimore is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New England
  • Baltimore is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing New England
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 6 games when playing New England

New England Patriots

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England’s last 6 games when playing Baltimore
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England’s last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore
  • New England is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Baltimore
  • New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore
  • New England is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore

 

Game Overview

Baltimore is the only NFL Final Four team to have to go the wildcard route to get to the conference title game. It won the AFC North with an overall record of 10-6 straight-up to finish as the No.4 seed in the conference. A relatively easy 24-9 victory over Indianapolis as a 7.5-point home favorite was followed-up with a stunning 38-35 double-overtime win over Denver as a 9.5-point underdog on the road. The Ravens come into this matchup 5-4 SU (4-4-1 against the spread) on the road this season and the total has stayed UNDER in three of their last four games.

A big reason for the last two victories after stumbling to a 1-4 finish both SU and ATS in the regular season is the entire teams desire to send linebacker Ray Lewis into retirement on a winning note after spending the last 17 seasons anchoring the Ravens’ defense. It is unwise to underestimate the power of this kind of motivation especially in a matchup where both teams are extremely familiar with each other having met in the playoffs in two of the last three years.

The Patriots were not only a prohibitive favorite to win the AFC East this season, they were 3/1 favorites to get back to the Super Bowl a second-straight year by winning the conference. Except for a shaky 2-2 start, things have gone pretty-much according to script with an overall record of 12-4 in the regular season and a 41-28 pasting of Houston as 9.5-point home favorites in last Sunday’s Divisional Round. New England is 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS at home this season with the total going OVER in seven of the nine games.

They played true to form in the win over the Texans with Tom Brady throwing for 344 yards and three touchdowns to complement a defense that gave-up over 400 total yards but found a way to shut its opponent down when it needed to the most. Look for the same formula this Sunday as New England continues its quest to become the first team to lose a Super Bowl and get back to the big game the following season since the Buffalo Bills did it for the third-straight time in 1994.

Prediction

As mentioned earlier, these two teams know each other well with five meetings in the last four seasons. The Patriots have a slight 3-2 edge SU but the series is tied 2-2-1 ATS. The matchup in season’s AFC title game came down to a missed Baltimore field goal to send the game into overtime. While things will probably not be quite that dramatic this time around, still stick with the Ravens to easily cover with the 8.5 points. New England 31 Baltimore 28

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Dave Schwab

DJ is a freelance writer that concentrates on his true passion in life; the world of sports. He produces a number of articles each week for BangTheBook.com as well as a select group of other websites that specialize in providing the most up-to-date information for the sports gaming industry. His goal is to write insightful articles on a wide variety of sporting topics that can provide an edge to today's sophisticated online player.

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