Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots NFL Free Picks for Week 6
(4-1, 3-2 ATS)
New England Patriots
(3-1, 2-2 ATS)
Baltimore’s offense has really started to put it together. After scoring just ten points in each of their first two games, the Ravens are averaging 24.0 points per game since then and has won all three outings. This has been a brutal schedule as well for the purple and black, and since they have already taken on the New York Jets, Cincinnati Ravens, and Pittsburgh Steelers on the road, this clash shouldn’t really bother them that much. The schedule gets significantly easier from here for Baltimore, as four of the next five games are against teams that probably are not challenging for playoff spots. The defense for the Ravens is ferocious as always. This unit has only allowed six TDs in five games this year, and it ranks No. 2 in the NFL in pass defense (156.6 yards per game), No. 3 in total defense (257.8 yards per game), and No. 4 in scoring defense (14.4 points per game). Both DT Haloti Ngata and RB Ray Rice are dealing with nagging injuries this week, but they are both likely to play on Sunday afternoon in Foxboro.
The Pats might have the best offense in the NFL this year at 32.8 points per game, but this will be the first game played with WR Randy Moss, who was traded two weeks ago to the Minnesota Vikings. The emergence TE Aaron Hernandez has really made it possible to get rid of the future Hall of Famer. Hernandez, the team’s fourth round draft pick this year, leads the team with 240 receiving yards. WR Wes Welker has 26 receptions for 217 yards and three scores to lead the team. RB Fred Taylor is out of the lineup with a toe injury, and with RB Kevin Faulk already on the shelf, this leads just RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis and RB Sammy Morris to carry the load. Green-Ellis has surprisingly emerged as a legitimate rushing threat this year, as he has 47 carries, 215 yards, and two scores. The defense played well two weeks ago against the Miami Dolphins, allowing just 14 points, but this unit still ranks just No. 29 in the land in total defense at 384.5 yards per game and No. 26 at 24.0 points per game. The special teams has been awfully special, as demonstrated two weeks ago when the unit blocked two kicks and got a return for a TD.
The Ravens won this game last year, and we tend to believe that they can do the same this season. The Pats just don’t have a major aerial option to spread this defense out, and if Baltimore basically just has to focus in on the short passing game and the run, it is going to be a long, long day for QB Tom Brady and company.
Selection: Baltimore Ravens +2.5
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