By Tony George / Tony George Sports
Baseball is confusing to the recreational gambler. Well, let me state that another way, MONEYLINE WAGERING is confusing to the occasional gambler. Let me do a short and sweet review of the Do’s and Don’t in moneyline wagering and a crash course in capping MLB.
MONEYLINE BETTING IN BASES – THE GOLDEN RULE – LESS IS MORE!
By any account, you are risking more trhan 11 to 10 odds (ATS betting) when betting in bases if you are in fact playing a favorite, so your 10% juice is magnified big time, plus dime lines if under -150 at most legit books. What this means is simple, if the Yankess are -140 to beat the Red Sox, then you are wagering $140 to win a $100 plus 10 percent vig (dime line) , or basically risking $150 to win a $100.
For this reason I rarely if at all am willing to lay over -150 on any game in MLB in any season. It minimizes risks, and once you consider I have hundreds of clients who follow my plays weekly, and I would say 75% of them are recreational gamblers who have a basic knowledge of moneyline wagering. This puts the responsibility on ME to assure a money management program with a bankroll based on the fact I am not laying -235 and -190 all the time, and those lines many times carry a .20 cent line.
On heavy favs you can lower the odds from lets say -230 to -120 with a run lin, or -1.5, but the team basicxally has to win by 2 runs to cover the bet at the lower odds. This can backfire so choose your spots wisely if using this as a tool to lower odds on heavy favs.
So in essence I find and suggest you do the the same, favorites under -150 to wager on, or Totals Plays which are 11 to 10 odds or -110, or short or big dogs. ALSO limit your plays to 2 or 3 daily MAX. I rarely put out more than 1 play a day, use a flat bet unit method when wagering, and slowly and surgically strike the books with the best bet of day, every day, 1 unit at a time.
SOME KEYS IN CAPPING BASES – Bullet Points
- Heavy emphasis on Starters
- Equal emphasis on bullpen ERA
- Use recent stats - Last 3 to 5 Games
- Bet listed pitchers only
- Slugging percentage and on base percentage is KEY
- If division opponent, check recent history and trends for teams and starting pitchers
- Batting averages are different when a team faces right handers vs left handers – check those stats
- Never chase a loss with a heavy favorite that you are just sure will win – DOOM!
- Tread lightly with run lines – they look good on the surface but can be dangerous
- Playoff time – The stats do not lie – trust them
Hopefully with these takes and tips, you can create success in MLB. I have managed to turn a profit in 6 out of the last 7 MLB seasons, never laying over -150 using this approach and capping emphasis. Best of luck.