While the college football season may be winding down, serious handicappers are still hard at work looking for any possible edge right until the very last minute. Those bettors who have moved on to basketball or are concentrating on the NFL playoffs are likely to miss out on a few solid college football plays during the final week of the season.
One scenario that has been profitable over the past few years is to take January favorites in bowl games when the total is at least 65. Dating back to the 2007 season, favorites are 10-2 against the spread in this situation and there are three teams that fall into this spot.
The first team is Baylor, which is a hefty 16.5-point favorite over Central Florida. The Bears are a solid team and it’s looking more and more like it’s the system that allows the quarterbacks to post such lofty numbers. Baylor also falls into a category that has seen favorites of 14.5 or more points go 6-1 against the spread in January games dating all the way back to the 1987 season, so while the situation doesn’t occur often, it has been profitable over the years. (Alabama also falls into this spot.)
Yes, Central Florida had a solid season, but three-point wins over South Florida and Temple aren’t the signs of a team that can hang around with one of the big dogs of the college football scene.
The second team that falls into this category is Ohio State, which is favored by 2.5 points over Clemson. The Buckeyes have to be a bit disappointed not to be playing in the national championship game, but Urban Meyer should have his team ready to play as he makes his return to the state of Florida. Before the conference championship games were played, several sportsbook managers came out and said that Ohio State would be favored over Auburn if they met in the national championship game.
The final team to fall into this spot, is of course, Florida State, and the Seminoles are favored by 8.5 points over Auburn, a number that has been holding fairly steady over the past two weeks. There isn’t much to say about Florida State that hasn’t already been said this season, and they should be able to score plenty of points against an Auburn team that allowed more than 36 points per game when playing good offensive teams (LSU, Texas A&M, Georgia, Alabama, Missouri).
The Tigers will get some points, but will likely have a tough time trying to match the Seminoles on the scoreboard.
Cole started off as a part time handicapper and a full time computer programmer. After developing a computer program that consistently provided winners in NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports Cole went into full time handicapping. The computer program and his knack for winners made him a rising star in the handicapping world. His complex computer program based on algorithms and analytical calculations have led to a 60% ATS rate.
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