The Atlanta Falcons and the Denver Broncos are set to do battle in NFL betting action on ESPN’s Monday Night Football, and here at Bang the Book, we are taking a peek at some of the NFL props for what should be yet another remarkable game on the gridiron.
Peyton Manning Under 25.5 Completions (+100): Manning looked great last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but the truth of the matter is if you go back and look at the box score from that game, he threw the ball just 26 times in the whole game. Now, we expect to see the Broncos take more than 55 snaps for the game in this one, but we’ll still see plenty out of RB Willis McGahee as well, especially trying to slow down this Atlanta passing game. Manning will get his shots, and he’ll probably have to throw the ball 35 times on Monday night, but asking him to complete 26 passes more than half the time in a game like this one just seems like it is a heck of a lot to ask.
Willis McGahee Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-115): Like we said, we think that McGahee will get his touches for sure. Last week, the Falcons might have blown out the Kansas City Chiefs, but RB Jamaal Charles was just one of the four men that had respectable days on the ground. Granted, a lot of the rushing yards came in garbage time when the game was out of reach, but Charles had over 60 yards on the ground by halftime in that one, and that was when the game was still competitive. Head Coach John Fox would certainly rather keep the ball on the ground, and the truth of the matter is that Manning doesn’t really care as long as his team is winning games and he is running his wide open style of offense where the field is spread out and he can see everything. We expect to see McGahee get more carries than he did against the Steelers last week, and we have to remember that this isn’t the Pittsburgh defense that he is running against. The same 16 carries will go for a lot more than the 64 yards that it did last week this time around against the Falcons.
Matt Ryan Under 23.5 Completions (-125): This is largely the same logic that we have with Matty Ice that we had with Manning. The game is going to be a lot slower this time around, and the Falcons aren’t going to have the opportunity to simply just keep running up and down the field. They’ll find some resistance from the Denver offense, which will take some time off the clock, and that will limit the chances that Ryan is going to get to work with his receivers. That being said, both WR Julio Jones and WR Roddy White love to stretch the field deep as well, and that might make for a lot fewer completions, though the yards might still be there for Ryan.
No Julio Jones Touchdown (+110): We definitely are glutton for punishment with this prop, but Jones has scored a touchdown in five straight games, which is the longest such streak for receivers in the league. All good things must come to an end at some point, and Jones is going to be matched up with DB Champ Bailey and DB Tracy Porter for a good chunk of the evening. Getting loose with those two guarding him is going to be tough to say the least, and though Ryan is going to work the ball up the field to Jones one way or the other, that doesn’t mean that he is going to score more often than not. Remember, this prop insinuates that Jones is going to find the end zone in at least nine games over the course of the season, and we just don’t know if that’s going to be the case.
Andrew Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.