Boise State Broncos
(10-0, 8-2 ATS)
Nevada Wolf Pack
(10-1, 5-6 ATS)
Is this a de facto play in game to the BCS Championship for the Boise State Broncos? Depending on how the rest of these two weeks pan out, this could be the case. One thing is for certain, and that’s that Friday night’s affair with the Nevada Wolf Pack is the hardest date of the year, save perhaps the game against the Virginia Tech Hokies at the outset of the season.
Boise State has done everything right this year, and it really seems like winning out parlayed with a loss by either the Auburn Tigers or Oregon Ducks would send the little program from the Smurf Turf to the biggest stage that college football has to offer. There has been a lot of talk as to whether or not the Broncos are really deserving of a chance to go to the BCS or not, but when you rank No. 4 in the nation in offense and No. 2 in defense, you’re definitely a deserving candidate to play against one of the biggest teams in the land. The Broncos are outdoing their opponents 528.8 – 229.2 in terms of yards per game and are outscoring their foes by 36.4 points per game. Boise State has dropped at least 33 points on the board in every game this year, and it has scored at least 48 in six of its L/7. The Broncos “only” scored 42 in that other ‘W’ against the Hawaii Warriors. QB Kellen Moore, RB Doug Martin, and WR Titus Young are going to reach milestones on Friday night. Moore needs 79 passing yards to reach the 3,000 yard barrier, while Martin needs 62 yards on the ground, while Young needs 12 more yards through the air to reach their respective 1,000 yard marks.
Nevada has a heck of an offense though, and it will certainly give the Broncos a bit of a challenge. QB Colin Kaepernick has had three chances already to beat Boise State, but he hasn’t gotten the job done yet. So far in his career, the Pistol signal caller has thrown for 9,488 yards and 80 TDs and has rushed for 3,891 yards and 55 scores. However, the one thing that he has never done was beat the Broncos. There is an outside chance that the Wolf Pack could make it to the BCS with an emphatic upset, but what they should be paying attention to is the WAC title, which will be won or lost in this game. RB Vai Taua has rushed for 1,241 yards this year and has a total of 19 TDs. This offense just looks unbelievable at times. The unit has averaged 537.7 yards per game this year, including dropping 844 yards on the Idaho Vandals. Nevada is averaging 304.4 yards per game on the ground and 44.1 points per game. There have been five games this year in which the Wolf Pack have scored at least 50 points, and they might need to get there this week to win this game.
Don’t mistake the fact that the Wolf Pack are going to stick around in this game. Boise State is going to get the biggest fight that it has had all season long, and even if it has a 28 point lead, Nevada won’t ever totally be out of it. However, when push comes to shove, the Broncos aren’t losing this game, and they aren’t going to be sweating in the final few minutes. Back Boise State in what should be an incredibly entertaining matchup.
NCAA Football Free Pick: Boise State Broncos -13.5