May 16, 2008

Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers Game 6 Pick

NBA Playoff Betting Preview
Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers (Celtics lead 3-2)
Friday, 8:05 pm Eastern – ESPN

SBG Global Opening Line: Cavaliers  – 2 , Total  179

Things have gotten much tougher for the Cleveland Cavaliers in their series against the Boston Celtics.  Not only do they have to win on Friday to force a Game 7, they must do it without one of their best shooters as Daniel Gibson will miss the game with a separated shoulder.  It will be up to LeBron James to lead the Cavaliers on Friday. “It’s something we didn’t want to happen,” James said, “It’s kind of the tale of our season – a guy goes down in the heat of a playoff series. He’s very key to our team. It’s not good seeing a guy who is that key to your team in a suit.”
SBG Global reports that early NBA betting has the public taking Cavaliers at Home.

The Cavaliers blew a 14 point lead on Wednesday in Boston as they missed free throws and gave the game away. Gibson has played a key role in the playoffs for Cleveland as he is one of the few outside threats the Cavaliers have to score.  Last year he scored 31 points in the playoffs against Detroit.  Now the Cavaliers will have to find someone else to score other than James. “We’re not looking for a spectacular game from anybody,” said James, “We just want to continue to do what we’ve been doing in the two wins we’ve had at home – guys stepped up. We’re not looking for a guy to go out and score 30 points or anything like that.” The Cavaliers will probably look to either Devin Brown or Damon Jones to replace Gibson or perhaps Sasha Pavlovic will get more minutes.

SBG Global Current Line: Cavaliers  – 2.5 , Total  179

The Cavaliers are not happy about being down 3-2 in the series after having the Celtics on the ropes in Game Five.  The third quarter was the downfall of the Cavaliers as the Celtics outscored them 29-17. “We had them on their heels,” Cleveland center Zydrunas Ilgauskas said, “(In the second half) It just seemed like we really weren’t into it. We came out a half-step slow.”

What helped the Celtics in Game Five was the play of point guard Rajon Rondo, who scored 20 points and had 13 assists.  He hit some big shots to keep the Celtics in the game. “If they’re going to leave him open, I want him to shoot it,” Boston head coach Doc Rivers said. “But I don’t want him to look for it.” Boston will try and get their first road win of the playoffs on Friday. They are 0-5 on the road so far. Eventually the trend of home teams winning in the playoffs should end but so far it has been amazing.  Before Thursday’s Hornets-Spurs game the home teams were 19-1 in the second round.  The lone win came by one point when Detroit won at Orlando.
“I guess we could bring the scorekeepers, and bring all the wives on the road,” Rivers said. “We’re not going to do that. We’re just going to show up and play basketball.”

Cleveland does not seem worried about Friday’s game. “You can’t panic,” guard Delonte West said. “This is when it gets fun. This is when you see what your team is made of.”

Here are the NBA betting stats for Friday’s game.  The Celtics are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog. The Celtics are 40-16 ATS in their last 56 games as a road underdog. The Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 day of rest. The Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Celtics are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Conference Semifinals games. The Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. The underdog is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings between the two teams but the Celtics are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Cleveland.

The Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite. The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Conference Semifinals games. The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 day of rest. The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. The Cavaliers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Friday games.

The Over is 4-1 in the Celtics last 5 road games. The Under is 15-6 in the Celtics last 21 vs. the Central. The Under is 5-2 in the Celtics last 7 games as a road underdog.

The Under is 13-3 in the Cavaliers last 16 Conference Semifinals games. The Under is 4-1 in the Cavaliers last 5 Friday games. The Under is 7-2 in the Cavaliers last 9 vs. the Atlantic. The Under is 14-4 in the Cavaliers last 18 games as a home favorite. The Under is 12-5 in the Cavaliers last 17 games playing on 1 day of rest. The Under is 12-5 in the Cavaliers last 17 overall.

Pick: Cant go against the home teams this postseason as they are 20-1. Nice low line here Cavs 4units

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