BetAnySports.com is back with another great set of NFL betting props for the NFL Network’s Thursday Night Football. Join us for the Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers prop picks for this NFC duel at the HHH Metrodome.
Longest Touchdown of the Game Over 41.5 Yards (-115): It’s a risky play to make in this one, but it seems to be the play that is going to cash more often than not. We have seen WR Percy Harvin do some insane things on special teams, and we have seen defensive players like DB Ronde Barber take a pick 75 yards back for a touchdown without batting an eyelash. You never know when RB Adrian Peterson is going to rip off one of those 45+ yard touchdown runs, and the Bucs have been doing more airing it out in the passing game over the course of the last few weeks when they do throw it. It’s a great strategy. In the end, you’d like to think that a five-touchdown game would yield at least one that goes at least 42 yards in this one.
Josh Freeman Longest Pass Completion Over 39.5 Yards: Over the course of the last two weeks, Freeman has hit five passes of at least 42 yards. He is sending men like WR Tiquan Underwood on the outside up the seam, and the same could be said about throwing deep balls up to WR Vincent Jackson. The playaction game is what’s really working for Freeman, and he has averaged over 10 yards per pass attempt in both of his last two even though his completion percentage really wasn’t all that remarkable in either game at 57.1 and 57.7 percent. Rule of thumb has it that there are going to be at least three attempts down the field of at least 40 yards, and if that turns out to be the case, we just hope that one of them ends up falling in for a catch.
Ronde Barber to Not Intercept a Pass (-350): Over the course of the last several years, it has been really tough for Barber to intercept passes. In order for this prop to be a loser for us, there would have to be at least four different games in which Barber logs an interception. The last time that happened was in 2008. Since that point, Ronde has played in 54 games, and he only has nine interceptions. Now, everyone is getting excited because Barber has a pick in back to back games, but when you look at the grand scheme of things, you see that he is averaging getting a pick in 16.7% of his games, meaning that this prop should be closer to the -450 to -500 range than the -350 range. We’ll pick that off with that type of an overlay all day long.
Adrian Peterson to Not Score a Touchdown (+130): We very well could be eating our words in this one, but Purple Jesus went five straight games without scoring a touchdown from Week 2 until last week. Peterson is getting a blow every now and again, and QB Christian Ponder is being trusted more and more with the ball in the red zone than he was last year. The Bucs rank third in the NFL in rush defense, though they have allowed a slew of rushing touchdowns this year (but hardly any through the air if you take out QB Eli Manning and QB Drew Brees). There is a real chance that All Day ends up with 22 carries, 120 yards, and no trips to the end zone if there is a lot of settling for field goals instead of scoring touchdowns.
Percy Harvin to Score a Touchdown (+105): It’s all about the percentages for us, and the percentages say that Harvin is going to find some way into the end zone in this game. The former Florida Gator has come as advertised, and he has scored on the ground, in the air, and as a kick returner this year, and he can literally do it all. Harvin touches the ball 12 times per game on average, and the law of averages says that he is going to find his way into the end zone on at least one of those touches at least every other game.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.