Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Pick

The New England Patriots will be happy to have 2007 MVP Tom Brady back at the helm as they kick off their 2009 regular season at home against the Buffalo Bills in the first half of ESPN’s opening Monday Night Football doubleheader. Brady missed almost all of last season after throwing a league record 50 TD passes the previous season. Monday’s game also marks the regular season debut of Terrell Owens with the Bills.

New England is now a 11 point favorite with a total of 47.5 at bookmaker.

The Patriots will be trying to set an NFL record with their 12th straight win over the Bills. No NFL team in history has beaten another team 12 straight times. The Patriots have a powerful offense led by Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welker but they have some defensive issues since a number of their veterans are gone. It will now be up to the young players like Jerod Mayo to carry the New England defense. “We have a lot of good leaders on our team and especially on the defensive side of the ball,” head coach Bill Belichick said. “No doubt about it, it’s different, but I think it’s good.”

The Bills are hoping that that addition of Owens will jump start their offense. Owens didn’t play much in the preseason and the Buffalo offense was so bad that the Bills fired offensive coordinator Turk Schonert. The Bills will be missing running back Marshawn Lynch who is suspended for the first three games of the season.

The last time the Bills defeated the Patriots was in the first game of the 2003 season. Since that time they have lost 11 straight by an average of 20.5 points per game.

Here are the NFL betting stats for Monday’s game. The Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 1. The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September. The Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. the AFC East. The Bills are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings in New England.

The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games. The Patriots are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 vs. the AFC East. The Patriots are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite.

The Under is 4-1-1 in the Bills last 6 vs. the AFC East. The Over is 5-2 in the Bills last 7 road games. The Over is 6-1 in the Patriots last 7 games overall. The Under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between the Bills and Patriots.

Pick: Take the over