USC is 3/1. LSU is 7/2. Alabama is 5/1. Oregon and Oklahoma are 7-1. Georgia and Arkansas are 10/1. Florida State is 12/1. Virginia Tech, Texas, Clemson, Michigan, and Notre Dame are 20/1. West Virginia and South Carolina are 25/1. Michigan State, Nebraska and Wisconsin are 30/1. TCU and Boise State are 40/1. Florida and Auburn are 50/1. Tennessee, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Penn State, and Mississippi State are 60/1. Texas A&M, Washington, Arizona State, Iowa, BYU, Baylor, Stanford, Kansas State, Utah, and California are 75/1. Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State, Virginia, Illinois, Washington State, Cincinnati, Wake Forest, South Florida, and Arizona are 100/1. UCLA and Boston College are 150/1. And the Field is at 50/1.

Guys, that’s the College Football skinny. As I said, barring a miracle, the Top 10 is the Top 10 for a reason. The only way to ensure a fun and money making season is to follow all my releases right here. Thank you and Good Luck. Joe D’Amico.

Philadelphia Eagles: 10 Wins. I like the UNDER. The NFC East is truly competitive. This team has too many ego’s and a lot of off the field distractions. Hitting DDs is a tough one here.

Houston Texans: 10 Wins. I like the UNDER. They are the strongest team in their Division but a tougher schedule than last season combined with certain key players being healthy all season is a must and makes it difficult to reach 10 victories. They should take the AFC South but DD wins ain’t easy.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 10 Wins. I like the UNDER. Pittsburgh is a solid squad but the Division is Baltimore’s to take. The Steelers lifeblood is their defense, which is getting pretty long in the tooth.

Denver Broncos: 9 Wins. I like the OVER. Oakland and Kansas City are shaky at best. The Bronco’s won 8 games LY and if Peyton Manning stays healthy, he, himself will add at least 2 wins.

New York Giants: 9 Wins. I like the OVER. The Giants are the most complete team in the NFC East and are way underrated. They should have no problem hitting DD wins.

Chicago Bears: 9 Wins. I like the UNDER. The Bears are full of holes and put way too much emphasis on Matt Forte. Once defenses key on the RB, the passing game will crumble.

Cincinnati Bengals: 8 Wins. I like the OVER. The Bengals are no pushover. They are young and talented. And by the way, nobody told them that they can’t win.

Miami Dolphins: 7 Wins. I like the OVER. The  AFC East belongs to New England but both Buffalo and New York are in trouble. This gives the ‘Fins a real chance.

Indianapolis Colts: 5 Wins. I like the OVER. Two words… Andrew Luck.

There you have it, true “bang for the buck” value. Make sure to have fun this season. I know for me, having fun is making money. The one way to ensure a profitable season is to get all my wining information right here. Thank you and Good Luck. Joe D’Amico

Packers     4-1

Patriots     4-1

49ers         6-1

Saints        7-1

Broncos    7-1

Ravens      8-1

Eagles       9-1

Steelers     10-1

Texans      10-1

Bears         10-1

Giants       12-1

Cowboys   12-1

Chargers    15-1

Lions         15-1

Jets            20-1

Falcons      20-1

Bengals     20-1

Cardinals   25-1

Colts          30-1

Raiders      30-1

Chiefs        30-1

Titans        30-1

Bills           30-1

Redskins    30-1

Panthers     35-1

Seahawks   35-1

Dolphins     50-1

Rams          50-1

Vikings       60-1

Buccaneers 80-1

Browns       100-1

Jaguars       100-1

Well, sports fans, there you have it. Most people play their hometown or favorite teams to win it all. There is some value in a few of the “middle of the road” and one or two “longshots”. Be sure to enjoy yourself. The one way to guarantee a successful season is to get all my winners right here. Thank you and Good Luck. Joe D’Amico

1 – Florida International – This is a team that is on the rise in the conference and last year they were 8-5 overall and 4-2 in conference play.  They have 17 starters back including 10 on the defensive side of the ball.  They have the best defense in the conference after last year allowing only 19.5-ppg and 4.9-yards per play (ypp).  The offense needs to improve and it will after last year averaging 25.0-ppg and 5.4-ypp.  FIU has a tough non-conference schedule this year but has a ton of talent that will get them the title this year.  FIU went to a bowl game last year but did lose to Marshall in the Beef O Brady’s Bowl 20-10.  This is the team to beat in the Sun Belt this year.

2 – Troy – What a disappointment the Trojans were last year as they were 3-9 overall and 2-6 in the conference.  Larry Blakeney has been with Troy for 22 years and may be under the hot seat this year.  They will bounce back as they have 15 returning starters back including 9 on offense.  Junior QB Corey Robinson will lead a very potent offensive attack this year.  The Trojans will improve on their 22.4-ppg and 5.3-ypp on the offensive side of the ball.  They do get FIU at home this year and could be favored in that game.  If they win that, then there is a good chance this team could win the title but we will call for a 2^nd place finish.

3 – Western Kentucky – It is amazing where this team has come in a few short years.  In 2008 they were 2-10, 2009 0-12, and in 2010 2-10.  Last year they surprised everyone with a 7-5 record and were bowl eligible but did not get invited.  This year the Hilltoppers have 16 returning starters including nine on offense.  In 2011 the offense avg 22.9-ppg last year and 5.0-ypp while the defense allowed 5.9-ypp and 24.8-ppg.  TE Jack Doyle needs to have another big season as he was 2^nd Team SBC last year.  WKU also returns 1^st Team SBC RG Adam Smith.  This is a team that will continue to surprise.

4 – Louisiana Lafayette – It was a magical year for the Ragin Cajuns as they went from 3-9 in 2010 to 9-4 in 2011 and that included a bowl win over San Diego St 32-20.  Lousiana has a solid young coach in Mark Hudspeth and won’t be there too much longer as he will crawl up the coaching ranks.  Lousiana returns 13 starters including nine on offense.  The offense is explosive led by Soph RB Alonzo Harris, who was Freshman of the Year in the conference.  The defense is shaky as they allowed 29.8-ppg and only return four starters.  This is a talented team but the defense needs to improve in order to be a top team.

5 – Arkansas St – The Gus Malzahn era begins this year.  ASU had a magical run last year going 10-3 and 8-0 in conference.  The Red Wolves return 10 starters this year including Senior QB Ryan Aplin.  Aplin had a huge year last year and was 1^st team SBC.   They have tough conference games this year at Troy, FIU and Louisiana.  This looks like a team that won’t have back-to-back successful year as it will take at least a year for them to learn Gus Malahn’s offensive schemes.

6 – Middle Tennessee St – This will be an improved team this year after going 2-10 in 2011 overall and 1-7 in conference.  They return 13 starters including QB Logan Kilgore.  Kilgore needs to have a better year in 2012 for this team to improve and we think he will.  The offense will improve from avg 22.3-ppg and 5.1-ypp.  The key will be if the defense can improve from allowing 36.8-ppg and 5.8-ypp and they will with 7 returning defensive starters.  HC Rick Stocsktill is on the hot-seat this year and we expect an improved team but it may not be enough to keep his job.

7 – Louisiana Monroe – HC Todd Berry is doing a nice job at ULM after his first two seasons considering they are not getting the better high school talent.  Last year the team improved its stats as it went from avg 20.8-ppg in 2010 to 24.6-ppg in 2011 and on defensive allowing 32.4-ppg in 2010 to 25.4-ppg in 2011.  They return 13 starters including 8 on the offensive side of the ball.  The offense is lead by 2^nd team SBC WR Brent Leonard.  This is a team that will continue to improve but just don’t have enough talent to compete for a title.

8- North Texas – HC Dan McCarney had a respectable first year with the Mean Green going 5-7.  This year they have 14 returning starters including nine on offense.  The offense will be better and more explosive after avg 24.8-ppg and 5.0-ypp.  The defense needs to improve after allowing 30.7-ppg and 6.1-ypp.  Their non-conference schedule is brutal and will hopefully get them mentally prepared for conference play.  UNT hasn’t been to a bowl since 2004 and that streak will continue this year as the defense is just not that good and the depth is limited.

9 – Florida Atlantic – It was sad to see legendary coach Howard Schnellenberger retire the way he did with a 1-11 record.  FAU was awful on both sides of the ball.  It doesn’t seem to be getting any better this year as they havea new coach with new schemes.  HC Carl Pelini is the brother of Neberaska HC Bo Pelini and will instill some fire.  There just isn’t any talent here and it will take a few years for Pelini to get his players in that he wants for his schemes.  FAU will compete better this year but are a couple of years away still from really making their move up the standings.

10 – South Alabama – The SBC welcomes South Alabama to the league and their first year in FBS.  This team was 6-4 playing a FCS schedule last year.  This is a team that will be competitive but with the jump in strength of schedule it won’t be enough.  They return 15 starters including six on offense and Soph QB CJ Bennett.

1- Louisiana Tech – This is definitely a team on the rise as HC Sonny Dykes has the Bulldogs going in the right direction.  Even with the departures of Hawaii, Nevada and Fresno St, this team would have had a great chance anyways to win the WAC.  Now this is their title for the taking with ‘Big 3’ gone.   Dykes has his best team yet with 14 returning starters including seven on offense.  They avg 30.1-ppg last year but only 5.2-ypp (yards per play).  The benefitted from a +11 turnover margin and it will be difficult to be +11 again this year.  The defense is solid and opportunistic and we expect big things from the Bulldogs this year.  We will be surprised if this team doesn’t roll the table in the WAC this year.

2 – Utah St – The Aggies made some positive strides last year as they finished winning their last  five games of the season and getting to a bowl game before losing to Ohio U.  With 12 returning starters back including Soph QB Chickie Keaton and 1^st All-WAC offensive lineman Jr Tyler Larsen.  This is an explosive Utah St offense as last year they avg 33.6-ppg (ranked #23 nationally) and will equal or improve that number in a conference that is not known for defense.  The Aggies have a tough non-conference schedule as they have road games at Wisconsin, Colorado St and BYU.  This team could have been better last year if it were not for a -9 turnover margin so look for that number to improve this year.  The WAC title will come down to a showdown at La Tech on Nov 17.  If they pull that upset they will win the WAC but we will call for a 2^nd place finish in 2012.

3 – San Jose St – The Spartans come into 2012 with one of the most improved teams in the conference.  The offense is lead by 2^nd team All-WAC WR JR Noel Grigsby.  They have some talented skill players and will need some quick development from new starting QB David Fales.  The Spartans struggles on offense last year avg only 24.5-ppg and 5.4-ypp.  The defense is the key as they are very solid up front led by 1^st team All-WAC DE Travis Johnson and 2^nd Team All-WAC OLB Keith Smith.  The Spartans have the best defense in the WAC and with a solid defense you can stay in a lot of games.  With a few breaks this team could win the WAC as they have the talent to do so.

4 – New Mexico St – NMSU only has seven starters returning from a team that went 2-5 in conference play and 4-9 overall.  This team really struggles on the offensive side of the ball as they only avg 24.5-ppg but were a respectable 5.8-ypp.  The turnovers killed this team all year as they were -3 in TO Margin (ranked 80^th).  The Aggies have a solid HC in DeWayne Walker and he will get this team to play hard every game.  QB Andrew Manley has all the skills to lead this team to a quality season but he will need some help from an inexperienced offensive line and skill players.  The defense really needs to improve as last year they allowed 36.8-ppg.  We just don’t see this team competing for a title this year but don’t real out 2013 and beyond as Walker has this team in the right mind-set to prepare for each game and to compete in each game.

5 – Idaho – There us now where to go but for the Vandals this year after a horrific 2-10 season last year.  This was a team that was ranked #111 in total offense and #101 in total defense.  To add more insult to injury they were -7 in TO Margin.  They are introducing a new offensive coordinator this season and it will take time for them to adjust.  With only 10 returning starts back it looks like another long season in Vandal land.  The good news is that they will start 11 seniors and 8 juniors.  They will compete better this year but it just won’t be enough to get in the top four of this conference.

6 – Texas St – The Bobcats enter their first year in FCS off a 6-6 record last year.  Good news is that they have HC Dennis Franchione leading a team to FCS.  They have 16 returning starters back and will compete with UTSA to see who finishes at the bottom of the league.  Texas St loves to pound the football and will do so heavily this year and play possession football.

7 – UTSA – Another team entering their first year in FCS and are lead by HC Larry Coker.  You all remember him don’t you?  He led Miami to the BCS Championship in 2001 over Ohio State.  They do have 24 returning starters back and that does help a team in transition to FCS.  Their non-conference schedule is soft so they could win 3-4 games this year.  We don’t expect anything in conference this year.

Bowl Eligible Teams: Louisiana Tech, Utah State and San Jose St

MAC West

1 – Western Michigan – This is a team that has the best QB in the conference in Alex Carder, has he will be drafted next year.  They have 14 starters returning including seven on offense from a team that avg 35.3-ppg.  They could be more potent this year on the offensive side of the ball.  They have tremendous skill players as well.  The defense will need to improve and we feel it will as they allowed 28.7-ppg.  If they upset Illinois on the road, this is a team that could run the table.  We will call for them to win the West and get to the title game.

2 – Northern Illinois – Don’t count this team out this year after winning ther MAC title last year and only four returning starters back on offense.  They have the league’s most improved defense with eight starters returning.  The offensive system is still in place but we don’t expect the numbers to reach 38.3-ppg like it did last year.  They do have to go to WMU this year as the MAC West title could come down to that game.  HC Dave Doeren did a great job in first year and is a coach that will be sought after by the bigger schools.   We will call for a 2^nd place finish this year.

3 – Toledo – This is a team that can score, score, score.  Last year the Rockets had games where they put up 58, 54, 49, 60, 66, 44, and 45 points!  Only four starters return but they are led by QB’s Terrance Owens and Austin Dannan.  Both of them led the Rockets to those impressive stats.  Toledo has a new HC in Matt Campbell but he was the OC for their record setting year last year.  Look for the system to stay in place but the defense is the key this year.  They allowed 31.7-ppg but in back-to-back weeks gave up 63 points both weeks.  They will be explosive on offense again this year but with trips to WMU and NIU, we will call for a 3^rd place finish this year, however, this will be an exciting team to watch.

4 – Eastern Michigan – Yes, we are predicting EMU to finish 4^th.  This is a team that is on the rise in the MAC as they have 14 returning starters back from a team that went 6-6 last year and 4-4 in conference play.  This is the best EMU team in years and if they want to get to a bowl, this is the year they can possibly do it.  Last year EMU struggles offensively but their defense kept them in and won them most of their games.  For this team to be successful this year the defense will have to play at high level like it did last year and QB Alex Gillett will need to have a big year.  EMU has a great shot at their first bowl game since 1987 but a lot of it will depend on the play of Gillett.

5 – Central Michigan – CMU will desperately need to improve on their 22.6-ppg avg (ranked #92 nationally).  The defense stunk last year allowing 33.3-ppg but should be improved this year.  With 16 returning starters back from a 3-9 team, we expect CMU to be an improved team this year.  HC Dan Enos is on the hot seat yet as he is 6-18 in two years, but another 3-9 season will put him there.  Last year CMU was -12 in turnover margin (ranked #114).  That number will have to improve this year.  The offense is led by QB Ryan Radcliff who needs to step up as a senior and be one of the leaders of the team.  With some transfers coming in on defense, this will be one of the most improved defenses in the MAC.  This team has an excellent shot at being bowl eligible but has some very difficult road games this year.

6 – Ball St – After going 2-10 in 2009, 4-8 in 2010, they improved to 6-6 in 2011.  Ball St benefitted with some close wins last year and a -1 TO margin.  They were not that good offensively, only avg 25.3-ppg and defensively they were poor allowing 34.7-ppg.  The Cardinals won with smoke and mirrors last year.  This year they have 13 starters returning but the talent just isn’t there to compete for a MAC West title.  Look for them to be in a lot of games but we will call for a basement finish in the West.

MAC East

1 – Ohio U – Frank Solich is doing an excellent job at Ohio U as this is 8^th year at the helm.  After a tough loss in the MAC Final last year to NIU, we will look for them to get back there.  14 returning starters are back and this team could win 12-13 games this year.  The offense is led by QB Tyler Tettleton and he looks to improve his numbers after a big year 2011.  The defense is rock solid with right starters back that allowed only 22.1-ppg.  We just don’t see any other team really competing for the East title this year and we should see the Bobcats in the MAC Final for the 2^nd year in a row.

2 – Miami Oh – This is a team that has a QB that no one is really talking about as one of the best QB’s in the country, Zac Dysert.  Three-year starter and has put up some impressive stats.  The Redhawks could have one of the most improved teams in the country this year.  16 returning starters back from a 4-8 team last year that lost its last three games of the year by an avg of 4.6-ppg.  HC Don Treadwell has this team going in the righ direction especially on offense.  Dysert completes a high percentage of his passes and has some very good skill players back this year.  They do have a very tough non-conference schedule but do get Ohio U at home as that game will come down to the MAC East title.  We will call for a 2^nd place finish this year in the East but they will win 7-8 games and make a bowl this year.

3 – Kent St – The Golden Flashes have finished 5-7 for three years in a row.  They return 16 starters this year and could be very dangerous in competing for a title.  They have a top-notch defense that will keep them in several games this year.  The offense was atrocious last year as they avg 17.1-ppg (ranked #114).   They have to improve those numbers in order to have any chance at a title.  Kent hasn’t been to a bowl games since 1972 and if the ball bounces their way this year they could be bowl eligible.  There is just too much talent in the two teams listed above in the East but they will have a winning record this year.

4 – Bowling Green – The Falcons come into this season with high expectations for themselves as they were 5-7 last year and have 17 returning starters back.  They also bring back the Freshman Player of the Year in RB Anthon Samuel.  The Falcons have to improve on their turnover margin (-13) from last year to have any chance.  It’s amazing they won 5 games with those numbers.  The defense will be improves as well as the offense.  It is tough to call them to finish fourth in the East when they get Kent St at home but the defense isn’t as strong as The Golden Flashes.  BGSU will be very competitive this year but not enough to get them close to the title game.

5 – Akron – The Zips have nowhere to go but up this year after finishing 1-11 last year (only win against FCS team).  The problem with up is that they are still not very good.  They do have 8 returning starters back on offense but their offense was dreadful last year avg 278-ypg and 14.2-ppg.  Good thing UMass and Morgan State are on their schedule this year.  This is a 2-winteam in 2012.

6 – Buffalo – Looks like UB will be competing with Akron and UMass for the basement this year.  HC Jeff Quinn is in his 3^rd year and is 6-20 as the HC.  There is not a lot of talent in Upstate NY and there really isn’t any on its way.  15starters return and they are a 2-win team this year.

7 – UMass – The Minutemen make their debut in FBS this year.  They have 14 returning starters including QB  Kellen Hagel.  They were 5-6 in FCS last year and it will be a few years before they can really compete in the MAC East.  However, with a brand new league and coach there is optimism that they can play well and stay in some game.

MAC Championship Game: Ohio U over Western Michigan

Bowl Eligible Teams:  WMU, NIU, Toledo, EMU, Ohio U, Miami Oh, Kent

Pac-12 South

1 – USC – The Trojans are loaded this year.  When we say loaded, we mean LOADED.  They are coming off a 2-year probation which included no bowl games but seem to still have tremendous talent.  All-American QB Eric Barkley is back for his senior year and wants a BCS Title in the worst way.  HC Lane Kiffin has a great job in recruiting and several of his top players are underclassmen.  The offense has 9 returning starters are one of the most potent offenses in the country.  The defense has 7 returning starters back and will be much better this year.  This is a team that will be in the top 5 all year and has an excellent chance at winning the national championship.  With a loaded team returning and excellent recruiting class USC is back on top of their game in 2012.

2 – UCLA – Jim Mora steps in as the new HC and is bringing a no-nonsense approach to UCLA.  He has a very good team that he needs to mold in how to win close games.  16 returning starters back including 9 on defense.  The defense needs to improve and will under Mora’s defensive schemes.  They have talent on that side of the ball led by 6 senior starters.  QB Kevin Prince will be pushed this year by some good young talent.  The non-league schedule is tough, but the Bruins get Nebraska and Houston at home.  They are one of the most improved teams in the country as we really like the hiring if Jim Mora, Jr. and will make football relevant again at UCLA.

3 – Utah – This is another talented team with a lot of returning starters that are undervalued.  9 on offense and 7 on defense return from an 8-5 team.  Utah held their own in year one of being in the    Pac-12 and they will continue to make great strides in year two.  They do get UCLA at home and if can pull the upset will have an excellent shot at finishing 2^nd in the South.   The Utes have been to nine straight bowl games.  Make it 10 this year and have a very talented squad.

4 – Arizona – The Rich Rodriguez experiment didn’t last too long at Michigan.  He brings his spread-run offense to Arizona.  The funny thing about the Wildcats is that they were a spread offense that liked to chuck it up and down the field.  Hopefully, Rich Rod will play to the talents he has but you never know with him.  12 starters return from a 4-8 team as the defense was dreadful last year.  No the defense has to learn a completely new 3-3-5 scheme that won’t be easy.  This is a team that will be improved this year as it will be difficult to defend their spread offense.  They have an excellent shot at being bowl eligible this year.

5 – Arizona St – New HC Todd Graham is really excited about being in Tempe as he made no bones about it by leaving Pittsburgh and telling his team through text messages that he was leaving.  He brings his no huddle fast paced offense with him but the problem is the talent level.  We think he will be able to recruit west coast talent to Tempe with his style but that doesn’t answer how this year will be.  Only 8 returning starters back so there will be an adjustment period.   They do have a good shot at being bowl eligible and they will need a lot of their underclassmen to perform and get with the new schemes quickly.

6 – Colorado – This team has had five straight losing seasons and 2012 will be their 6^th.  Looking for bright spots there is hard to find some.  HC Jon Embree needs 2 more years of his recruits to really change the culture of the team.  To be competitive this year the Buffs are going to need to improve on their TO Margin as they were    -4 and their defense as they allowed 36.5-ppg last year.

Pac-12 North

1 – Oregon – The offensive juggernaut in Eugene, OR continues.  This team is once again one of the most prolific offensive teams in the country.  Led by RB De’Anthony Thomas, they have speed, speed and more speed.  The last two years they have avg 47.0-ppg and 46.1-ppg.  We don’t expect any drop-off this year.  The defense is loaded with 6 returning starters back and they are deep.  This is a BCS Title contending team and all eyes will be on November 3^rd when they go to USC.  Chip Kelly has done a tremendous job and it’s hard to believe that this is only his 4^th years HC.

2 – Stanford – Andrew Luck is gone to the NFL and everyone in Palo Alto will be in panic mode.  There really shouldn’t be much panic because HC Dvid Shaw is not panicking.  They do return 6 starters on offense from a team that avg 43.2-ppg.  We don’t expect those types of numbers this year but they will still be explosive enough to help them win many games.  The defense is rock solid this year with 7 starters back and they only allowed 337.6-ypg last year.  This is a potential 9 or 10 win team in 2012.

3 – Oregon St – Mike Riley needs a big year or he could be out of a job at the end of the season.  He has a team in 2012 that could save his job.  The Beavers have 15 returning starters back and are vastly improved on both sides of the ball.   They do have a very difficult schedule but Mike Riley usually does his best with his back up against the wall.  He has pulled off some solid upsets in the past and we think he can do so this year.  This is an undervalued team that we feel will surprise many people.   They don’t have a lot of stars but they have solid players that play hard.  They will be bowl eligible this year.

4 – California – This have been an average team the last couple of seasons and the Bears will need to be better than average if they want to have a successful season.  The one plus is that they return to their home stadium after a year of renovations.  Teford is on the hot seat and must produce this year or he will be out.  We don’t like their chance to be great but they will be average.  Look for a 6 or 7 win team in 2012.  That won’t be good enough to keep his job.

5 – Washington – The Huskies have 13 returning starters back and there are high expectations in Seattle for 2012.  This could be a make or break year for Steve Sarkisian as he is only 19-19 his first three years as HC.   They have some talent on offense as they avg 33.4-ppg and they return QB Keith Price.   They have a brutal schedule this year and to be 6-6 and bowl eligible could be a major accomplishment.  The Huskies have road games at LSU, Oregon, Arizona, and California.  They do get USC, Oregon St and Utah at home.  Brutal schedule.

6 – Washington St – Let the Mike Leach era in Pullman begin.  We love this guy as a HC and feel he WILL turn the Cougars around.  They may not win a lot this year but they will have some fun as they will pass, pass and pass some more.  Give Leach a couple of years with his recruits and he will re-build this program.   With 14 returning starters back from a 4-8 team, this could be a bowl team in 2012.  QB Jeff Tuel will thrive in the pass-happy offense and could top 4,000 yards passing this year.   They will be fun to watch this year.

Pac-12 Championship Game: USC over Oregon

 By Tony George

The landscape has changed in the Big 12 once again.  A whole new look to the conference who still lacks 12 teams in order to have a conference championship game, but TCU and West Virginia of all people join the Big 12 as Missouri and Texas A&M leave for the SEC.  Just the year before Nebraska bolted for the Big 10 and Colorado found a home in what is now the PAC 12.  So in essence the Big 12 conference has seen 3 powerhouse teams leave this conference and the whipping boy Colorado over the past 5 years is now fodder for Pac 12 opponents.

Last year the Big 12 was one of the stronger conferences in the nation, and also produced the Heisman Trophy Winner out of Baylor in RG III, as well as Baylor’s best year in football ever and found Okie State at the top of the heap!  This season there is a great deal of parity in this conference from top to bottom and West Virginia comes into the fold with a possible top 10 football team, and may contend for a Top 2 spot at year’s end but their schedule is brutal.  It is going to be interesting this year but Oklahoma has all the tools to make a run for a national title, ranked as high as 4^th in many preseason polls, and the Big 12 will be a major BCS Bowl contender with possibly 2 teams this year.

As many as 6 teams appear consistently in the preseason polls, and OU and West Virginia appear in the Top 10 most consistent, with Oklahoma State, Texas, TCU  and Kansas State popping up in more than a few spots.  Of course Okie State won it all in 2011 behind the golden arm of, now current Cleveland Brown week 1 starter, Brandon Weeden.  The lone preseason Heisman candidate out of the Big 12 this year is QB Landry Jones from Oklahoma but Gino Smith of West Virginia may make some noise as well.  The final USA Poll has 6 teams in the Top 25, and PARITY is the keyword in this conference, wins will not come easy this year, especially by large margins.

Mark down November 17^th as a day to watch football, as one of the highlighted conference games of the year to watch will be Oklahoma at West Virginia in what could determine much of the BCS landscape as well as a conference championship on the line. This game will be bigger than the annual Red River War between Texas and OU this year. 

I enter my 21^st year in handicapping and while I handicap games across the board I concentrate on the Big 12 and am known as a Big 12 expert in this arena, and I am going for my 9^th year in a row where my winning percentage against the Las Vegas Line in the Big 12 will exceed 60%.

Let’s break down how I see this finishing up in 2012:

1.     Oklahoma Sooners

I cannot ignore last year’s debacle OU had as well as injury issues that plagued them for the better part of the season and not think they are not poised for a title run.  That being said Bob Stoops has the weapons this season and a stud at QB in Landry Jones that should lead them into the November 17^th game at West Virginia undefeated.  OU is loaded this season and despite the SEC’s dominance over the BCS, OU if undefeated will get a shot at a national title.

Returners: 17 – Both special teamers included

Offense

Landry Jones comes back with 7 starters and while replacing WR Broyles is an issue, with WR’s Stills and Reynolds back in the fold, you can expect a wide open attack through the air.  QB Jones spent the entire summer working at an exclusive QB camp and word is his speed and footwork are excellent.  The running game is the weakness so the return of RB Whaley is going to be a wait and see game, he was absent from the spring game, but Roy Finch stepped in and was better than average.  Word is out of Norman that JUCO transfer RB Damien Williams is going to be an impact player this year.  The left side of the OL is very strong and overall this offense which ranked 10^th overall in the nation will again be right up to par.

Defense

Mike Stoops, ex Arizona head coach and brother of Bob takes the reins.  He has been here before and gets a defense which was subpar by OU standards last year, and I look for improvement from the 79^th ranked pass defense from last year where the secondary this season is deep, fast and now experienced. The loss of all world LB Lewis will be felt, but OU deep in talent at the position.  This defense will be a top 20 defense behind Mike Stoops this season and they are loaded across the board minus a stud rush end which may emerge, that is the only weakness and problem spot for the Sooners.

Overall Summary – OU has both special teamers back and both are studs, a Heisman candidate at QB and skill players all over the place on both sides of the ball, not to mention big play type guys everywhere as usual.  It boils down to QB Jones remaining calm and playing the role of field general and getting the ball to his skill players and moving the chains.  If this occurs and OU gets a Top 20 defense overall out of Brother Mike, OU should be able to beat everyone on their schedule.  They get Notre Dame at home and have tough games at West Virginia and in Dallas as always with Texas this year, and have Okie State, K State, TCU and Baylor at home.  Two years removed from their last Big 12 title, the Sooners will be hungry and barring major injuries should make a run at a BCS Championship bowl, the date at West Virginia looms very large.

2       West Virginia 

A newcomer to the Big 12, and we will find out if the Big East is worth all what they claim, because this is the best team from the Big East, making a change and going head to head with Big 12 foes, and also being ranked 10^th in the nation in many polls.  The good news for the Mountaineers, their head coach is VERY familular with the Big 12, having been the OC at Okie State; Dana Holgorsen is well attuned to what is going down in the Big 12 and where the pitfalls are in his old stomping ground so to speak.  That will bode well for a very talented West Virginia Team led by stud QB Geno Smith surrounded by weapons. The schedule is insane so a fast start is needed against 3 weak sisters to start the season. The downfall is the Big 12 schedule versus their standard Big East Schedule, and a 6 game run that no team in the nation could go 6-0 in with the exception of possibly of LSU, Alabama or Oklahoma and even that is a stretch.

Returners – 15 – 2 Special teams- plus returner

Offense

It begins and ends with QB Geno Smith, but many say the amount of playmakers he has are the best in the nation on any team. From what I saw in a bowl game against Clemson where they scored over 70 I agree. There are 7 returners on this unit that was brilliant at times last year, and awful as well.  Look for more consistency this year and lots of big plays.  Tavon Austin is one of the more exciting players in the nation and is also a huge threat on special teams, and he gives them great field position consistently.  The air attack here can overwhelm anyone as the speed of execution thwarts good pass rushes.  They have short threats on dump passes and stretch the field well with stud WR Bailey.  One issue is the OL, it is very thin and if the injury bug bites, that could prove fatal.  The rotate 3 RB’s, all are decent but nothing world beating. Overall the 6^th best passing team in America last year, I expect that number to get better.  QB Smith may rival the Sooners OU Jones in the Big 12 QB arena and could prove to be a Heisman front runner at season’s end.

Defense

This is my concern.  Not the talent as much as 3 of the head coaches on the defensive side of the ball went to Arizona to join Rich Rod, their old boss.  Confusion with a new system and a new DC is always a concern.  Depth is also a concern on a team with a high octane offense that scores quickly, you need good rotation and they are very thin at rush end losing allot to graduation.  Joe DeForest from Oklahoma State rejoins his buddy as DC now, and Okie State’s defense was not and never has been all that good, so this scares me.  The pass rush is weak but the secondary is decent and overall this unit was ranked 33^rd last year with 6 returning, but this is Big 12 play, not the ho hum Big East so time will tell.  They can outscore many opponents but a well rounded team must play defense, the jury is out.

Overall Summary- The offense without question will be Top 10 in the nation, and will score points and fit in well and keep pace with the Big 12 style of spread attacks, but the defense is a HUGE concern for me against the speed of the Big 12 in general.  With solid special teamers and a dangerous return game, West Virginia will find its way into some late fourth quarter thrillers but the SCHEDULE is brutal.  They have Baylor at home to open Big 12 play and they are still a solid team even without RG III, then at Texas, at Texas Tech, Kansas State and TCU at home, and then Okie State on the road and OU at home, back to back weeks in that order.  This ain’t any Big East Schedule boys.  They will make a strong debut in the Big 12, but no team could walk out of those 7 weeks without a loss, I mean no one.

3.Texas

Is this Mack Browns year on the hot seat?  According to many it is, but if he can find 9 wins it is smooth sailing for his future, and I think he finds it with this schedule this season, not to mention the cupboards are full of talent and promise.  Texas has fallen from grace and many count the Longhorns out in 2012, but THIS IS MY SURPRISE TEAM in the Big 12 this season.  An 8-5 result in 2011 is not up to par in Austin, but many bright spots this year have me high on Texas, and they did have the #1 defense in the Big 12 last year and they return 7 out of the top 10 tacklers from that defense.  They also get TCU and West Virginia at home which is a huge plus.

Returners – 15 – Punter and kicker both new

Offense

The ability to run the ball is KEY in big games and KEY in this conference if you can also use it as a defensive weapon.  Whether Mack Brown is smart enough to figure this out is yet to be seen.  With clock eating drives you can hold the score down and take high octane teams like OU and West Virginia out of their game plan.  Texas has a solid OL and 3 RB’s including all world frosh Jonathan Gray in the backfield.  The QB 2-headed monster is in effect with Case McCoy and David Ash, neither are spectacular but David Ash is the better of the two and should be able to run a balanced attack.  Jaxson Shipley and Mike Davis who had a great spring camp anchor the WR unit, which in inexperienced but talented.  Malcolm Brown will be the RB workhorse and look for Texas to run and pass in a 50/50 mix and move the chains well and eat clock.  I like their running game a ton in 2012, which lacked last year with injuries.

Defense

Overall ranked 11^th last year, quietly the Texas defense who led the Big 12 last year returns 7 starters from last year’s stellar unit.  DE’s Okafor and Jeffcoat at end is a solid tandem of talented pass rushers  The secondary is top 5 in the nation with two great cover corners and Vaccaro at safety might be a first round NFL pick at season’s end.  They can rush the passer, and cover tight downfield, a good combo against spread offenses.  Expect a ton of blitz’s this year and some takeaways from this unit, the strength of this team is DEFENSE.  Last I checked Defense wins big games!

Overall Summary-  f Texas can establish the run and play good defense like last year, both of which are highly likely, they can win games ugly and slow down high octane attacks by keeping them on the sideline and back that up with a great defense.  They have issues at punter and kicker, with the kicker being a true frosh, but their return game is solid.  Beating OU in the Red River War would be a huge win that could really put this team out front with lots of confidence, but that is a tall order.  Games with TCU and West Virginia loom large but they are at home which is huge.  If they can split those games, and win out their easy schedule at seasons end which includes Iowa State, K State, Kansas and Texas Tech, with TCU being their last home game of the season, Texas will get to 9 wins and may surprise many nationally this season.

4.  TCU

Tough choice here, but TCU has a possible chance of being a major player in the Big 12 in their opening season.  Only 5 defensive starters back, although many non starters played a ton last year, has me slightly worried about the Frogs now that they are peeing in the tall wheat with the Big Dogs.  Last year was suppose to be a rebuilding year and all they did was win a conference title, a bowl game, and had 11 wins!  I credit Gary Patterson for that, a great head coach.  This is not the Mountain West so we will see his prowess on display this season.  Again the level of teams they play are 3 times what they are used to facing and that is going to be an adjustment.  All that said, TCU will play physical and rough some teams up if they drop their guard against TCU

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Returners 12- new punter and kicker

Offense

Last year QB Casey Pachall turned heads and is a stud at QB for them.  They are also deep at WR and RB,, and have a unit of RB’s that rival anyone outside of Texas in the Big 12.  They rotate a ton of players on offense at RB and always are fresh and they return 3 of their top 4 WR’s.  My issue with success begins and ends on the OL.  The Horned Frogs lost 3 of 4 starters OL and that has to be addressed quickly.  I think they can score points with anyone IF their OL can come together; as they have major talent at QB and skill positions. It may take a few games.

Defense

Returning 5 starters is an issue.  Having no experience really in the secondary is an issue.  Lacking depth and good speed at LB is also a concern.  Gary Patterson and the Frogs pride themselves on defense and no doubt will play very physical which is their trademark.  They have a few studs in the mix here and top tackler LB Kenny Cain returns and they have 2 rush ends that get after the QB as good as anyone, but facing the high octane spread attacks of Big 12 teams like OU, West Virginia, Okie State and Baylor will be a change of pace and it will be a big question mark if TCU can hold up to the grueling challenge week in and week out without a ton of experience, especially in the secondary.

Overall Summary – TCU is stepping way up in class and will bring an air of confidence with them.  They are extremely well coached and should put up plenty of points.  There kicking game lost a 4 year starter that doubled as both punter and placekicker and they are looking at 2 freshmen to fill the void, which is a concern.  TCU will have to trade punches on offense to win games, and they have Okie State, West Virginia and Texas on the road this season they and end the season at home against Oklahoma.  Hardly a Mountain West Schedule this season.  Overall TCU will make some noise and cover big numbers if given them this season.  I also expect them to pull an upset somewhere along the line this year.  I expect a strong showing from a small conference non BCS newcomer that is out to prove something.  No doubt they would be proud of a Top 3 or 4 showing this season in the Big 12 and just might do it.

5.  Oklahoma State

The returning 2011 champions face an uphill climb even with 16 starters back.  When you lose 75% of your offense between Weeden and Blackmon both graduating and starring in the NFL, and have to start a true frosh at QB, you have worrisome issues. Their defensive coordinator also went to West Virginia.  In other words Okie State while talented and experienced in many areas will lack the big play capability they had the past 2 years and Mike Gundy has his hands full, I do not expect a repeat of 2011.

RETURNERS – 16, Quinn Sharp the best kicker, punter combo in USA returns

Offense

The good news is Okie State has the best RB in the conference in Joe Randall.  This guy can do it all and may have to this season as Okie State looks to a true frosh in West Lunt at QB to take over for stud Weeden. He won the job in spring ball as he came to school early but being a true frosh without a big play WR is going to be an issue so look for Coach Gundy to open up the running game to take the heat off of the young man, and RB Randall will hit the rock 25+ times a game in this offense. They lost half of the OL too, so I do not see one of the best offenses in the nation last year being close to what they were this season. This is a huge concern but they will find a way to put up 35 a game by seasons end with young talent and some experience gained on the learning curve.  A rare work in progress for Coach Gundy which is unusual.

Defense

This unit is sneaky good.  Hard to fathom that statement since they ranked 107^th last year overall, but the funny thing they led the nation in takeaways and turnovers.  They have a top 2 secondary in the Big 12 and will rank in the top 15 nationally.  They also bring back all 3 LB’s from last year.  The DL and pass rush is lacking but they should be able to contain the run and make some big plays in the secondary.  They will be improved and be ball hawks in the secondary.

Overall Summary – With question marks all over the place on offense except at RB, and replacing two record setters who won a conference title for the Cowpokes last year with overall inexperience across the board at QB and starting a frosh QB, I just do not see it for the Cowboys in 2012.  Okie State is simply in a rebuilding phase on offense this season and the learning curve will be severe in terms of execution and turnovers being an issue.  In the Big 12 with competing teams having the ability to post up points quick, this will be the downfall of OSU this year.  I see them as a 4 loss type team.  They do get TCU and West Virginia at home but will need a perfect game to beat either one of them.   At least they got the ring last season and something to build on, and Gundy is a good coach and will have them on back top soon.

BOTTOM 5 Teams

6.  Kansas State – Last year K State shocked everyone and had a stellar season with a bunch of no name players on their way to an 11-2 season and a hard fought bowl loss to a great Arkansas team.  They return 8 on offense and 8 on defense but will not sneak up on anyone this season.  They have a stud QB in Collin Klein, who also is their leading rusher, backed by 3 capable RBs and a trio of WRs that are solid.  They lack a big OL this season and lost 3 starters there.  Tight end Travis Tannahill is a big time NFL prospect and should be the 31 option for Klein.  They need to throw the ball better to win this year, unsure if they can.  The defense is a middle of the road unit at best and with games at Oklahoma, TCU and West Virginia along with an week 2 game against Miami who they upset last year, we are looking at a 4-5 loss year for the purple cats.  Bill Snyder has proved me wrong my entire career and may again, but last years coaching job was his best ever in my opinion, he will need a repeat.

7.  Texas Tech – Having gone just 2-7 in the Big 12 last year and only 5 wins, Red Raider nation is restless with Tommy Tubberville.  The good news is they return 17 starters and a ton of experience; the bad news is another defensive coordinator, as the last one resigned.  They were almost dead last in the NCAA in defense last year.  They also added 5 JUCO players to the roster in the spring and look for an improved effort overall on defense, which will not trake much in all honesty.  The offense is lead by 5^th year senior QB Seth Dodge and he is solid and has targets.   They ranked 7^th in the nation in passing last year and were in the top 25 in scoring.  They are loaded on offense but the defense will give games away more times than not.  5 losses are in the cards here but I think they improve simply because of QB Dodge and the offense.  QB Dodge is a stud with weapons around him, look for some shootouts but at day’s end they cannot stop anyone and that does not bode well in this conference. 

8.  Baylor - You cannot lose RG III who won the Heisman and expect greatness again with an unproven commodity at QB in senior Nick Florence.  They do have a stud WR in Terrance Williams who will play in the NFL, and they do return 16 starters overall last year from a team who shocked everyone except me with a huge season and a bowl win over Washington where they scored 67 points, but also gace up 56 in that game.  That is in essence is the issue with Baylor.   Defense is a huge concern as they were ranked 102^nd or worse in every category in the NCAA last year.  The Schedule is insane, at TCU (who is playing with revenge from last year), at OU who is also playing with revenge as well as Texas, all on the road and all ticked off about losing to them last year.  Not good news for the Bears this year as they take a step backwards. They have returning experience but expectations will not be met in Waco this year and a back to reality check is on deck in 2012. 

9.  Iowa State – Let me say this, Paul Rhodes is one of the best coaches in the Big 12 and gets his team reved up to play hard every game.  Iowa State has not won a conference title since 1912, and that was the Missouri Valley!  That being said they have not named a starter at QB yet, both have experience starting from last year, and both may in fact see playing time, which is never a good thing.  They also open up the season with a decent Tulsa team at home and then travel to big brother Iowa the next week, which is a tough 2 games to open a season.  Last year the Cyclones averaged just 22 ppg on offense, and while they pulled the upset of the year in 2011 against then ranked #1 Okie State, I do not see it this year for the boys from Ames.  Questions all over the place on defense, no secondary to speak of and while all 3 LBs return, their top tackler was their safety last year which says it all.  ISU a well coached team but also is learning under a new offensive coordinator since theirs last year left for Ohio State and greener pasture.  They will compete, they just won’t win. 

10.  Kansas – It took KU 2 years to fire ex Husker great Turner Gill and bring in Charlie Weis from Florida.  We saw Charlie’s last head gig in college at Notre Dame and it was a train wreck, and he brought his prized recruit from his days as a golden domer QB Dyane Crist with him to KU.  If you stink one place, y6ou stink elsewhere too. KU ranked 110^th or worse on defense in every major stat category by the NCAA on defense last year and nothing was done in the offseason to really overcome that.  It starts and ends right there.  The offense will be more productive with RB Pierson who I saw in the spring game and he looked awesome, and the OL is all back, but they lack big play capability and also stretching the field vertically is a huge issue.  KU a bottom feeder in football this year again, maybe 3 wins, possibly 4.  Sorry Charlie, you are at a basketball school.  

Conference USA East

1 – UCF – The Knights are ready to avenge a sub-par season in 2011.  They had several close losses that could have made a 5-7 season to at least an 8-4 season and a bowl birth.  HC O’Leary will have his team prepared as this year he has 16 returning starters back including QB Blake Bortles.  The offense dropped off a bit last year as they only avg 27.1-ppg compared to 32.1 in 2010 (and one of those games they scored 62 against FCS Charleston Southern).  The defense is rock solid and we expect big things this year from them.  This is a team that has an experienced HC and a chip on their shoulder after losing so many close games in 2011.  They are our football pick to win the east in 2012.

2 – Southern Mississippi – The Golden Eagles pulled the big upset last year in the CUSA Title game as they beat Houston.  It was a great year in Hattiesburg and some talented players are coming back.  The offensive line is solid led by C Austin Quattrochi and the QB will be Jr Chris Campbell.  Campbell has big shoes to fill as he succeeds Austin Davis who broke a ton of records.  Southern Miss only has 10 returning starters back but it is a solid nucleus and they have recruited well.  1^st year HC Ellis Johnson orchestrated a great South Carolina defense the last four years and he will bring his attacking –style defense with him.  The Golden Eagles have to go to UCF this year and that game could come down to the CUSA-East title.

3 – Marshall – The Thundering Herd are a team on the rise and we don’t think any of the top teams in CUSA should take them lightly.  Last year they finished 7-6 and ‘upset’ FIU in the Beef O’ Brady’s Bowl.  This year they have 13 starters returning including right on the offensive side of the ball.  The offense is led by QB Rakeem Cato, who is only a sophomore.  He has a strong arm and great running skills.  The offense will improve on their 21.8-ppg avg from 2011 which will make them a dark horse to win the East.  HC Doc Holliday has this team going in the right direction and two of their toughest conference games of the year, UCF and Houston, they get in Huntington.  We will call for a 3^rd place finish this season but things are definitely looking good for the Herd this year.

4 – East Carolina – HC Ruffin McNeill is in his 3^rd year with the Pirates and has yet to post a winning season in his first two.  He may be on the hot seat this year if they don’t have a winning record because he has his best team this year.  15 returning starters are back but they are breaking in a new QB in Jr Rio Johnson.  The offense took a big step back last year only avg 26.3-ppg (-12.5-ppg from 2010).  They will need to improve that number in order to be successful.  Many are calling for the Pirate to contend for the East title this year but we just don’t see it.  They play a difficult non-conference schedule which includes road games at UNC and South Carolina.  They have to go to Southern Miss, UCF and get Navy and Houston at home.  It is going be a tough season for them to compete for a title and get bowl eligible.

5 – UAB – The Blazers haven’t had a winning season since 2004 and this year they turn to 1^st year HC Garrick McGee.  McGee was the offensive coordinator at Arkansas and led their high-powered attack to some impressive numbers.  He is hoping that his Blazers can improve on  a 20.2-ppg avg which was good for 108^th nationally.  QB Jonathon Perry leads the offense but transfer RB Dontavius Jackson should help.  The UAB defense has been poor for years allowing over 30-ppg every year since 2006.  McGee wil turn the program around but not this year.  Good thing Memphis is in their side division or they would finish last.

6 – Memphis – The Tigers have been atrocious the last three years (2-10, 1-11, 2-10).  They do have 14 returning starters back and new HC Justin Fuente has is hands full.  Look for for Memphis is to really establish the passing game and try and get things moving downfield.  The offense has been dreadful the last two seasons and there will be a learning curve and adjustment period.  Fuente will have his team compete but they just don’t have the talent.  Looks like another bad year in Memphis.

Conference USA West

1 – Houston – Every must think we are nuts picking Houston to win the West this year after losing record-setting QB Case Keenum.  We say, welcome Sophmore David Piland.  Piland filled in for Keenum 2 years ago when Keenum got injured and did a nice job.  Piland red-shirted last year and is ready to lead an attack that has 5 returning starters including RB Charles Sims.  New HC Tony Levine wants to keep the same style of offense but it will be tough to match last year’s 49.3-ppg avg.   This team has some good talent coming back on defense with seven starters back.  It’s business as usual in Houston as they won’t miss a beat this year with a new HC and new starting QB.  Houston is our pick to win the West.

2 – SMU – June Jones run-n-shoot offense has not been as prolific at SMU as it was in Hawaii but he has this team going in the overall right direction.  SMU will be breaking in a new QB in Garret Gilbert (transferred from Texas).  He will be learning the run-n-shoot literally on the run as he just transferred in.  This is a type of offense that Gilbert will excel in as opposed to the one he was in at Texas.  SMU has a significantly underrated defense which will include seven starters returning.  The defense only allowed 23.1-ppg and 340-ypg total.  SMY was ranked dead last in the country in turnover margin (-16) and they were still 8-5.  If those numbers get better this is a potential 10-win team.  They have an excellent chance at getting to the title game as they do get Houston at home this year.  We will still call for a 2^nd place finish but it would not surprise us if they were in the CUSA title game.

3 – Tulsa – The Golden Hurricane football have been to 5 bowl games the last 6 years and 2^nd year coach Bill Blankenship has another talented team back this year and will get to another bowl.  This team has an excellent chance at getting to the CUSA title game with 13 returning starters back.  The offense is led by RB Willie Carter and WR Bryan Burnham.  They will be breaking in a new QB in Jr Cody Green.  The offense very good last year avg 33.01-ppg and we don’t expect and drop-off this season.  The defense is solid as well and will improve their numbers from last year as they allowed 27.3-ppg.  This is a gritty, tough team but will have to go to Houston and SMU.  That is why we are calling for a third-place finish this season.

4 – UTEP – Hard to believe that HC Mike Price is entering his 9^th season with the Miners but he is.  Price is 45-52 in eight seasons and he is definitely on the hot seat this year.  UTEP has not had a winning season in 2004 but do return 13 starters from a 5-7 team that was hit by the turnover bug last year.  The schedule is not favorable for the Miners as they make trips to Tulsa, Houston, East Carolina and Southern Miss.  They also get UCF at home.  Unless there is a miracle in El Paso this year, this team is heading for another sub-.500 record.

5 – Rice – The Owls have had three straight losing seasons after going 10-3 in 2008 and that may have bought HC Dvid Bailiff one more year because of that great 2008 season.  The Owls only return 10 starts but QB Taylor McGargue and WR Sam McDuffie return.  Both are versatile players and can make plays.  The defense was poor last year allowing 33.3-ppg and we don’t see it getting much better.  The Owls could not capitalize on their +8 TO Margin and if they can be in the positive this year with their TO Margin they are going to have to take advantage of it.  There is just not enough talent for them to compete for a title this year but this team will play hard every time they step on the field.

6 – Tulane – New HC, new systems, and hopefully a new attitude comes to New Orleans this year.  HC Curtis Johnson was the WR coach for the Saints and will bring some excitement to the position.  This team is still 3 to 4 years away as they have no talent.  They do return 14 starters that are hungry to win but it will take some time.  We will call for another last place finish this year but the future looks good with Johnson as the HC.

Conference USA Championship Game: UCF over Houston

Bowl Eligible Teams: UCF, Southern Mississippi, Marshall, Houston, SMU, Tulsa

1. New England Patriots – This team will win 10+ games for the 11th straight year. Brady will again lead one of the top 5 offenses in the league. The weak spot is the defense and they spent 2 first rounders and their first 6 draft picks on that side of the ball. This team is a Super Bowl contender and if Belichick gets the defense out of the bottom 3rd and just to middle of the road, then watch out.

2. NY Jets – This is nearly a defecto selection. I don’t think the Bills are here yet and I think Miami will struggle. This team can easily crash into a 4-12 season. Rex Ryan has his toughest job yet. Tebow will add some excitement for sure. What effect will it have on Sanchez? I can’t argue with the talent or the favorable schedule. It’s everything else in this circus you need to worry about!

3. Buffalo Bills- Chan Gailey and new DC Dave Wannstedt. Wow. It is a Dallas Cowboys reunion on the sideline. FA signee Mario Williams will help the defense. It is funny that they have a 7th round QB starting in Fitzpatrick and undrafted RBI Fred Jackson in the backfield when you have former 1st rounders Vince Young and CJ Spiller on the bench. Welcome to Buffalo. If things fall into place the Bils could compete for a 2nd place finish and a wild card birth.

4. Miami Dolphins- I like Matt Moore but he will be pushed by David Garrard. I read they may cut one of the vets and toss rookie Ryan Tannehill the backup reigns. But really does it even matter when you have the worse receivers in e league? I like some of the defense, but I can’t see more than 6 wins here. At least they have the Heat!