Preakness Stakes Post Draws and Morning Line Odds
1: Orb (Even Money)
2: Goldencents (8 to 1)
3: Titletown Five (30 to 1)
4: Departing (6 to 1)
5: Mylute (5 to 1)
6: Oxbow (15 to 1)
7: Will Take Charge (12 to 1)
8: Govenor Charlie (12 to 1)
9: Itsmyluckyday (10 to 1)

The Preakness Stakes is a race that is every bit as much about speed and positioning as it is anything else, and unfortunately, a big part of that is the post draw. There isn’t a heck of a lot of time to get to the first turn at Pimlico Racetrack, and that makes the inside posts the most beneficial to have. That’s why Orb is an odds on favorite, and we expect him to go off at around 4 to 5 by the time this one actually goes to post. He wants to be a speed horse, but he has proven the fact that he can stalk as well, and regardless, we know that he is going to have the shortest ride at the Preakness Stakes because of that inside post.

We’ll start with some horses that we know we are going to throw out. We hate the fact that Titletown Five was even allowed to enter this race. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas knew what he was doing when he brought this horse to Pimlico, and he didn’t have any desires of this one actually winning. He just wants to wear out some of the other speed horses in the race, and he’s going to use this one to do so. Every major race that Titletown Five has run, he has started near the front or at the front of the pack, has pushed the pace, and has ultimately tired out. He’ll do that again in this one for sure. The question though, is whether he is going to take any horses down with him or not. This colt might actually be the biggest threat to Orb, not so much because he can beat the Derby winner, but because he can tire him out.

The other horses that we don’t think much of are two of the favorites. Mylute would be a great story if he were to win the race, but we just don’t know if Jockey Rosie Napravnik has a horse that is good enough at this level to get the job done. We also don’t think all that much of Departing, a horse that is going to try to close in the final furlongs. It’s not a strategy that works all that often at the Preakness Stakes, and it is better served for the longer races. It wouldn’t be surprising to see either of these horses hit the board, but we do think that in the end, there won’t be enough time for either to get to the front of the field.

The longshot horses that we hate include Will Take Charge and Oxbow, though there are some out there that think Oxbow has a real shot to win this race. This is the best of the Lukas horses in the field, and there’s a reason that Titletown Five is running. If the others at the front tire out, Oxbow might have a chance, but we just don’t feel as though he is one of the best 6-8 three-year old horses in the world this year.

Goldencents is the best positioned horse in the field of nine. He is starting on the inside, and he is going to be able to get right up to the lead. Don’t be overly shocked if Jockey Kevin Krigger tries to get cute and essentially cut out Orb, who is starting right next to him, before getting to that first turn. If that turns out to be the case, we think that this race is actually over. Orb won’t get back around Goldencents if the Santa Anita Derby winner can get in front of him early on and have a length or two of space to work with.

We were high on Itsmyluckyday in the Kentucky Derby, and though he had a horrid run, we think that he is still every bit as good as Orb. He had Orb dead to rights in the Florida Derby and was simply outkicked, and if that’s the case, we know that we have a horse that has great odds on his head. The only problem that we have with Itsmyluckyday is that outside post. Starting on the far outside isn’t as damning as it would have been had this field had 13 or 14 horses in it, but it’s still not an enviable position to be in.

Right to his inside will be Govenor Charlie, who we feel is the wild card of the entire race. There’s not much here to analyze. Govenor Charlie has only run in three races, and it has been two months since he has been on the track competitively. That said, he has the best breeding in the field as we see it, and there’s something to be said about that. Trainer Bob Baffert knew what he was doing when he sat this horse out of the Kentucky Derby, and it might pay dividends here at the Preakness Stakes.

Orb is still the horse to beat in this race, and we would be remiss if we didn’t include him in any exotics. It’s going to be tough to see him not ultimately winning, but we do think that this could be a heck of a race and one that is a lot closer than a lot of the so called “experts” think. If you want to bet the best value, go with either Govenor Charlie, Itsmyluckyday, or Goldencents (we recommend Goldencents of the three). In the end though, this is probably still Orb’s race to lose.

Preakness Stakes Superfecta Pick
1: Orb
2: Goldencents
3: Govenor Charlie
4: Itsmyluckyday

Kentucky Derby Post Draws and Morning Line Odds
1: Black Onyx (50 to 1)
2: Oxbow (30 to 1)
3: Revolutionary (10 to 1)
4: Golden Soul (50 to 1)
5: Normandy Invasion (12 to 1)
6: Mylute (15 to 1)
7: Giant Finish (50 to 1)
8: Goldencents (5 to 1)
9: Overanalyze (15 to 1)
10: Palace Malice (20 to 1)
11: Lines of Battle (30 to 1)
12: Itsmyluckyday (15 to 1)
13: Falling Sky (50 to 1)
14: Verrazano (4 to 1)
15: Charming Kitten (20 to 1)
16: Orb (7 to 2)
17: Will Take Charge (20 to 1)
18: Frac Daddy (50 to 1)
19: Java’s War (15 to 1)
20: Vyjack (15 to 1)

Before we get started with the horses that we really like, we want to take out of the equation two of the favorites that we just don’t think are worthy of such great prices. We think that Orb is a crying joke of a favorite and a complete sham. Perhaps we are going to turn out to be wrong, but we just don’t like what we have seen out of this horse thus far. He has never run faster than a 97 Beyer Speed Rating in his career, and that’s bad news for a colt that is going to probably have to run around a 108 or so to win this race.

We also are taking Goldencents off of our radar for now. We don’t have anything against this horse, and we do think that he legitimately could win this race, but at 5 to 1, there is just no value there any longer. Perhaps if Goldencents gets up to 10 to 1 or so, we would consider, but we don’t think that the California road to the Kentucky Derby at Santa Anita was all that worthwhile this year, as a number of the best contenders ended up going down injured.

That out of the way, there are plenty of horses that we do like. Verrazano is the colt that we truly believe to be the best three-year old in this year’s class. He reminds us of Big Brown just a bit, and he was a horse that won the first two legs of the Triple Crown before getting pulled up in the Belmont Stakes with an eighth of a mile to go. Verrazano is an undefeated four-time champion, and about the only issue that we see with him is that he has never had dirt kicked in his face in his career. However, with the 14th post position and another horse in Falling Sky set to get out of the blocks towards the front of the field right next to him, we think that this is setting up to be another great run for Verrazano, as he is going to cut this field in half right away and be positioned to turn on the gas in the final four furlongs or so.

There are a few horses that essentially have always been bridesmaids, but never been a bride in the big time races that we are going to be keeping an eye on, strictly out of their value. From inside to outside, we have our eyes on Normandy Invasion, Palace Malice, Itsmyluckyday, Java’s War and Vyjack. Palace Malice is clearly the scariest of the horses to bet on, knowing that he is probably the fifth best horse of the ones that Trainer Todd Pletcher is training. All of these horses have something in common, though. They all finished right behind some of the best horses in the world in the prep races leading up to the Kentucky Derby.

Vyjack is the horse that interests us the most. Jockey Garrett Gomez is going to be riding this colt, and though he has a lousy post position on the far outside at post No. 20, it isn’t the end of the world. Java’s War (more on him in a second) is going to be out of his way, so the break should be totally clean. Vyjack will likely go everywhere that Orb and Verrazano go, so don’t be shocked if this turns out to be a horse to watch. Remember that Vyjack was only beaten for the first time in his career at the Wood Memorial by Verrazano, and that was the race that Normandy’s Invasion made a name for himself by finishing second.

In the end though, the horse to really watch out for is Java’s War. We love everything about this horse right now. Java’s War is going to fall right to the back of the pack without all that much in the way of company, and he is going to be able to run the race that he wants to run. The question is whether he can navigate through a field of 19 other horses in time to get up to the front. We think that with Jockey Julian Leparoux on his mount, he can do just that.

Don’t be shocked if we see Verrazano and Orb in a bit of a duel with Vyjack and Normandy Invasion and/or Itsmyluckyday at the end, and since none of these horses have ever been involved in such a race, Java’s War might be able to steal the day.

Bang the Book Kentucky Derby Picks
1: Java’s War
2: Verrazano
3: Itsmyluckyday
4: Vyjack

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There have been a number of horses that have tried their best and failed in the third leg in the Triple Crown, several of which really appeared to be in a heck of a lot better shape than I’ll Have Another is in right now. It is incredibly rare to see a horse like this go into the Belmont Stakes 1) with so many contenders going against it and 2) without being an odds on favorite. This is nothing like Big Brown or Smarty Jones, both of which were considered to be upset tremendously at the Belmont Stakes after winning both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes. Though the only horse that has even remotely challenged I’ll Have Another in either of his last two races is Bodemeister, who isn’t running here at the Belmont, there is still a definitive level of skepticism surrounding this Triple Crown contender.

The horses that are really going to be considered in the running are Union Rags and Dullahan. These are the two colts that are going to be the second and third favorites on the odds to win the Belmont Stakes, and many figure that they are going to be in the trifecta as well. We aren’t quite 100% sold on Union Rags, though. The horse is a good one for sure, but he has run into a heck of a lot of traffic and trouble over the course of the last several races that he has been in. This isn’t a good sign at the Belmont, though at least there is more time to make up for blunders.

That time though, is exactly what makes Dullahan an impressive looking horse. This is a colt that closed quickly to third place in the Kentucky Derby, and had the race gone another furlong or two, perhaps we would be discussing a very different horse. Dullahan won’t be in trouble this time around as he was at the Kentucky Derby with so many horses in the field, and unlike I’ll Have Another, who ran just three weeks ago at the Preakness Stakes, Dullahan has been off since the Derby.

Trying to find contenders aside from these horses are few and far between. We really don’t think anything of some of the real longshots to win the Belmont Stakes like Guyana Star Dweej, Optimizer, Five Sixteen, Ravelo’s Boy, Unstoppable U, and Atigun, and we really question why any of these horses are going to try to take the 1 ½ mile jaunt around Belmont Park.

There are three very interesting horses that we have not yet discussed, though. The likeable colt of the bunch is Street Life, a New York horse through and through. He was one of the favorites at the Peter Pan four weeks ago, and quite often, horses that run in that race and run well turn out to be contenders at the Belmont. We would rather be backing Mark Valeski, the horse that won the Peter Pan, but he ended up bowing out.

Many are on the back of Paynter right now as well. This is a horse that has only run four times in his career, but two of those runs featured Beyer Speed Ratings of 100+. There aren’t many in the field, save for I’ll Have Another that can boast multiple triple digit speed ratings in their careers, but we have a real question for Trainer Bob Baffert. Why run Bodemeister in the past and now run Paynter in the final leg of the Triple Crown? It is clear that this horse isn’t as stellar as Bodemeister was, and if the best Baffert horse couldn’t take down I’ll Have Another in two tries, what makes us think that Paynter is going to be a contender?

And that leaves My Adonis, the last horse that was welcomed into the Belmont Stakes field this year. The reason that My Adonis was put into the field had nothing whatsoever to do with his past performances. This colt has run and run a lot, and he has the distance to finish this race. However, he really hasn’t run all that well, and he hasn’t challenged the best in the world either for the most part. Graded stakes races have been atrocious to My Adonis. However, this is a horse that is going to be able to come out and get to the rail and the lead early. There was a ton of speed in the Kentucky Derby, but none of it whatsoever here at the Belmont. Is My Adonis just a rabbit to try to draw I’ll Have Another into an early speed race? Perhaps.

Without the presence of My Adonis in this field, we probably would have backed I’ll Have Another to win the Triple Crown. It’s hard to say that we would want anything less than to see a horse finally win the three biggest races in the sport in the same year for the first time since 1978, but this is a bad, bad spot for I’ll Have Another to be in. He has to start right to the inside of My Adonis, who is going to get out of the blocks quickly. If I’ll Have Another wants to get to the rail, he is going to have to flash some speed. If he does that at this distance, will he have that kick left in the tank to get the mile and a half in? That’s what we’re not sure about.

We think that money bet on My Adonis is money well spent this year. He has fantastic odds to win the Belmont Stakes, and he could be the horse that ruins this for everyone else. If he proves to have the distance to get the job done, My Adonis could turn up on the board.

In the end though, we think that the horse to beat at the Belmont is Dullahan. We think that he might be the most talented of all of the horses, and he is clearly going to be the best closing horse that the field has to offer. Back the closing horse to get the job done at the Belmont Stakes, and take I’ll Have Another out of your exotics for what could be a great payday if he doesn’t win the Triple Crown.
2012 Belmont Stakes Superfecta Pick: Dullahan – My Adonis – Street Life – Union Rags (5-12-1-3)

The 2012 Triple Crown racing season comes to a close this Saturday, June 9 with the 144^rd running of the Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York. For the first time since 2008 there is a tremendous buzz in the air for this race as I’ll Have Another will make his bid to become just the 12^th Triple Crown Champion in the long and illustrious history of thoroughbred horse racing.

This grade I stakes race is contested on a dirt track over a distance 1 ½ miles making it the longest and most grueling test of the three Triple Crown races. Post time this Saturday is set for 6:35 p.m. (ET) and the race will be broadcast nationally on NBC.

The following is a brief look at some of the top contenders for Saturday‘s race along with their current odds to win.

I’ll Have Another 4/5

This three-year old chestnut colt came into the Triple Crown racing season with little fanfare despite posting impressive victories in the grade II Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita in his 2012 debut followed by a stunning victory in the grade I Santa Anita Derby on April 7.

Some of this was due to the fact he is trained by Doug O’Neill and ridden by Mario Gutierrez, who are hardly considered synonymous with Triple Crown racing. None the less, after two stirring come-from-behind victories in the Kentucky Derby at 15/1 odds and the Preakness as the favorite, I’ll Have Another is the talk of the town and the prohibitive odds-on-favorite to do what has not been done since Affirmed completed the Triple Crown sweep in 1978.

Dullahan 5/1

Dale Roman’s entry into the Belmont Stakes made a serious run at winning this year’s Kentucky Derby but came-up short with a third-place finish, just a neck behind second-place Bodemeister. This followed a victory in the grade I Blue Grass Stakes where he rallied from 11^th place to beat Hanson by 1 ¼ lengths. He came into the Kentucky Derby as one of the morning line favorites at 8/1 but slipped to 12/1 at post time.

Dullahan had Kent Desormeaux aboard for the Derby but is expected to be ridden by his normal jockey Javier Castellano this Saturday in the Belmont. The three-year old colt first came on the scene with a fourth-place finish in last season’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and kicked-off his 2012 campaign with a second-place finish in the grade II Palm Beach Stakes on March 11. He was held out of the Preakness to train for this race.

Union Rags 6/1

Throughout the duration of the Triple Crown prep race season, this colt was also mentioned as one of the early favorites to win the Kentucky Derby. Despite a third-place finish in the grade I Florida Derby in his final prep race, he held onto that tag and went off as the 5/1 second-favorite at Churchill. A poor start led to a disappointing seventh-place finish in the Derby so trainer Michael Matz decided to hold him out of last month’s Preakness Stakes to better prepare for the longer and more demanding Belmont Stakes.

Paynter 8/1

Trainer Bob Baffert decided he had enough of watching his prized thoroughbred Bodemeister getting passed by I’ll Have Another down the stretch in the first two Triple Crown races, so he is going with Paynter as his entry in this final leg. Ridden by Mike Smith, this colt did not run in either of the first two Triple Crown races and his best finish in a major stakes race was fourth-place in the Santa Anita Derby. He is coming off a victory in an Allowance race at Pimlico Racetrack that was part of the same racing card as the Preakness, which is the primary reason that Baffert has him in this race.

The one thing that we know without a shadow of a doubt is that the field in the 2012 Belmont Stakes just isn’t as good as it has been in years past. There are a ton of horses that just don’t feel like they belong in this race, and that is really going to limit the field of real contenders that have a shot at beating the Belmont Stakes odds. This isn’t like the Kentucky Derby, which had a good dozen horses that could have legitimately won the race, or the Preakness Stakes, where Bodemeister was the clear choice to try to beat I’ll Have Another. There really isn’t a clear cut horse that could challenge I’ll Have Another in this one, and there really are only a few that we could see even remotely running with him.

Of course, the two horses that we are going to be watching out for are Union Rags and Dullahan. These are the only two colts that were in the Kentucky Derby that were real challengers. We didn’t see the best out of Union Rags in that race, and it is clear that this horse is going in the wrong direction in his career. Meanwhile, Dullahan is the serious challenger in our eyes, and he is going to be the second favorite on the Belmont Stakes betting lines at the end.

The key is really going to be how many horses are going to challenge Dullahan as the big time closer in this field. There are others that are going to try to run the same type of race, but that isn’t going to cut it in all likelihood. There won’t be as much traffic for Dullahan to get through to get up to the top of the field, but he wasn’t good enough to get past I’ll Have Another in the Kentucky Derby.

So what type of race will I’ll Have Another be running? Just like at the Preakness Stakes, there is a clear cut front runner in Paynter, and there are others that are going to probably jolt to the lead as well. However, we just don’t know whether any of them are going to be able to last for the full 1 ½ miles. Of course, no one is really sure about any horse until he actually runs this distance, but from what we have seen from I’ll Have Another, there is no doubt that he should last for the distance.

Look for I’ll Have Another to more or less stalk the lead and sit down in the fifth or sixth place position to start, and as the horses start to turn for home, he’ll probably be on the board already. The jolt will come at that point from jockey Mario Gutierrez, who is really trying to make a name for himself as well. And then comes the question. Will I’ll Have Another be able to get to the front of the pack? And if he gets there, will he be able to fend off Dullahan and the other closers?

Those are the questions that will be answered on Saturday, July 9th, when I’ll Have Another goes off the board as approximately an odds on favorite on the odds to win the 144th Belmont Stakes!

There are very few instances at the Preakness Stakes where the horse that is the favorite isn’t the Kentucky Derby winner. Normally when that turns out to be the case, there is a really good reason behind it. This year, we are in the same boat. The winner of the Derby, I’ll Have Another is the second favorite behind the horse that he outdueled at the wire at Churchill Downs, Bodemeister. These two horses are going to be starting nearly side by side in posts No. 9 and No. 7 respectively, and we think that they are going to be in for completely different races once again.

It is clear that Bodemeister is going to jump out to the lead and be on the rail by the start of the first turn, as he has the best speed in this race. The pace is expected to be a bit slower than it was at the Kentucky Derby when there were other horses that were pushing him at the start, as there should only be two or three horses that even remotely try to challenge Bodemeister in the first quarter mile. From there, it is going to be a matter of stamina. There were times during the Derby that it really looked like Bodemeister was just going to run away and hide from the rest of the pack, and had the race been a sixteenth of a mile shorter like this one is, we might be talking about an odds on favorite and a horse that is going to go to Belmont looking for the first Triple Crown in over three decades.

This time around, there is going to be less traffic for I’ll Have Another to get through, but the question is how many other horses are going to be right there with him. Another colt that really made a great run at the end of the Kentucky Derby unnoticed was No. 5 Went the Day Well. This wasn’t a horse that there was much thought of at the Derby, knowing that he went off the board at 30 to 1, but in the end, he closed all the way to fourth, and he might have finished in the winner’s circle with a cleaner run. This is a horse that proved that he can run with the big boys, and that might prove to be something to watch on Saturday.

As will some of the other horses in the middle of this field, including No. 6 Creative Cause and No. 8 Daddy Nose Best, both of which were in the Kentucky Derby field. Creative Cause hasn’t won a race in quite some time, but he has been right there in the discussion of virtually every single race that he has run as a three-year old. This horse has heart, and the biggest in the field at that, and if he finds a way to get into the fray with a furlong to go, Creative Cause might end up pulling off the mild upset.

The horses on the outside are ones that we want to avoid in general, knowing that it is awfully hard to get from the far outside all the way down to the rail before the first turn. If there is a horse that can find his way out of trouble and compete though, it will be No. 11 Cozzetti, who has the history of a horse that might come out of nowhere to finish on the board.

In the end though, the key to beating the Preakness Stakes odds is backing Bodemeister. He’s just the best three-year old colt in the world this year, and we just don’t see him coming up short in this race as he did at the Kentucky Derby. We give a lot of props to the No. 5 and No. 6 as well, and we think that they are going to end up shutting out I’ll Have Another from the board all together. There won’t be great prices on this race, but winners are winners, and we think that we have the triple.

If you are looking for other horses to throw into your exotics, we recommend the No. 2, No. 3, and No. 11. Otherwise…

2012 Preakness Stakes Trifecta Pick: Bodemeister – Went the Day Well – Creative Cause (7-5-6)

This Saturday afternoon at Pimlico Racetrack in Baltimore is the 137^th running of the Preakness Stakes, which is the second jewel in the Triple Crown racing series. An expected field of 12 of the top three-year old thoroughbreds are set to compete in the 1 3/16 mile run on dirt for a total prize purse of $1 million. The post time for the Preakness is slated for 6:05 p.m. (ET) and it will be broadcast nationally on NBC.

The following is a brief look at our top favorites, contenders, and longshot for Saturday’s race.

Favorites

Bodemeister 3/1

This three-year old colt was the odds-on-favorite to win the Kentucky Derby at 4/1. Despite running one of the best races of his career he ended-up a length and half back in second-place after leading right out of the gate for most of the way. Trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Mike Smith, Bodemeister did not run competitively as a two-year old but burst onto the scene with a second-place finish in the grade II San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita in early March and followed this up with an impressive victory in the grade I Arkansas Derby on April 14 at Oaklawn.

I’ll Have Another 5/1

The winner of the Kentucky Derby will try and keep his Triple Crown hopes alive as the second-favorite to win the Preakness. With one of the most stunning and exciting come-from-behind victories in Derby History, this three-year old chestnut colt extended his current winning streak to three in major stakes races after winning the grade II Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on Feb.4 and the grade I Santa Anita Derby on April 7. Trained by Doug O’Neill and ridden by Mario Gutierrez, I’ll Have Another first gained notoriety as a potential Derby contender in 2012 as a two-year old with a second-place finish in the grade II Best Pal Stakes at Del Mar.

Contenders

Went The Day Well 6/1

This three-year old colt finished just out of the money in the Kentucky Derby by taking fourth after rallying from 17^th place way back in the pack of 20 contenders. His only major stakes race victory was in the grade III Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park on March 24. After spending the early part of his racing career in England, he was purchased by Barry Irvin as part of Team Valor and is now trained by H. Graham Notion and ridden by John Velazquez. Went The Day Well is always remains a threat to win and offers solid value at these odds given his proven ability to close gaps with his blazing speed down the stretch.

Creative Cause 8/1

Finishing right behind Went The Day Well in fifth place in the Kentucky Derby, this three-year old colt established himself as a legitimate contender to win the Preakness with solid closing speed as well. Trained by Mike Harrington and ridden by Joel Rosario, he amassed an impressive resume as a two-year old. Creative Cause won the grade I Norfolk Stakes at Santa Anita and finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs. He opened the 2012 season with a victory in the San Felipe Stakes followed by a second-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby as part of his Derby prep race campaign.

Longshot

Daddy Nose Best 20/1

This colt brought a two-race winning streak into the Kentucky Derby with a victory in the grade III El Camino Real Derby on Feb.18 at Golden Gate and a first-place finish in the grade III Sunland Derby at Sunland Park in late March. After a solid start from the 10^th post, he got caught in the pack down the stretch to finish 10^th at Churchill two weeks ago. Daddy Nose Best is trained by Steve Asmussen and ridden by Julien Leparoux. In light of this horse’s overall resume, he offers tremendous value in the Preakness with a much less crowded field.

This Saturday at fabled Churchill Downs in Louisville, marks the 138^th running of thoroughbred horse racing’s most prestigious event, the Kentucky Derby. The field of 20 of the top three-year olds in the country has been set, the post positions have been assigned, and the early morning odds have been released.

The following is a look at our top favorite, contender, and longshot for Saturday’s race along with their current odds to win this year’s Crown Jewel of the Triple Crown racing season.

Favorite- Union Rags

Bodemeister is the early odds-on- favorite at 4/1 to win the Derby, but we are going with Union Rags at 9/2 as our favorite to win this race. Trained by Michael Matz and ridden by Julien Leparoux, this colt will start from the fourth post in this race. He had a very productive juvenile campaign with victories in the grade II Saratoga Special and grade I Champagne Stakes, but could only manage a second-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after going off as the favorite.

Union Rags won his first graded stakes race as a three-year old in the grade II Fountain of Youth in late February and finished third in the grade I Florida Derby on March 31.

Contender-Hansen

This colt was being considered a legitimate Derby contender well before he even turned three with three victories in three races in 2011 including his win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He went on to garner top honors as ‘Juvenile Champion of the Year’.

He started his three-year old campaign with a somewhat disappointing second-place finish in the grade III Holy Bull Stakes on January 29 but rebounded with a victory in the grade III Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 3. His last time out, in the grade I Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland, Hansen ran first for most of the way, but gave ground to Dullahan to finish second. Trained by Mike Maker and ridden out of the 14^th post in Saturday’s race by Ramon Dominguez, he has been opened as a 10/1 favorite on the morning line.

Longshot- I’ll Have Another

Given the fact that the favorite has only won this race seven times since 1975, there is tremendous value to be found in this field with horses that would be considered mild longshots with odds of 12/1 or higher. Our pick for horses that fall into this category is easily I’ll Have Another, who was opened at 12/1 on the morning line.

He is trained by Doug O’Neill and will be ridden by Mario Gutierrez out of the 19^th post for the Derby. What makes this colt so attractive at these odds is his performance in a couple of major prep races earlier in the year. I’ll Have Another started his three-year old season with a stirring victory in the grade II Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on Feb.4 and then cemented himself as a legitimate Derby contender with a win in the grade I Santa Anita Derby on April 7 by a nose over Creative Cause.

Prediction

Win: I’ll Have Another

Place: Union Rags

Show: Hansen